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The conditional volatility premium on currency portfolios

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  • Byrne, Joseph P.
  • Sakemoto, Ryuta

Abstract

Our paper examines conditional risk-return relations in a number of currency investment strategies, while modeling economic states using a large number of underlying risk factors. We identify a time-varying relationship between currency returns and volatility risk for most currency portfolios. In particular, value and momentum portfolios present risk-return relationships which switch sign, depending upon economic states. The positive relationship for the value portfolio is associated with “flight to quality” periods and the mean reversion for nominal exchange rates during financial crises. The positive relationship for the momentum portfolio is linked to the US and global business cycles and investors require positive compensation for risk in recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Byrne, Joseph P. & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2021. "The conditional volatility premium on currency portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:74:y:2021:i:c:s104244312100130x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101415
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    Cited by:

    1. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2022. "The time-varying risk price of currency portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Kazuki Amagai & Tomoya Suzuki, 2023. "Long-Term Modeling of Financial Machine Learning for Active Portfolio Management," Papers 2301.12346, arXiv.org.
    3. Choi, Jae Hoon & Song, Seongho, 2022. "Revisiting the PPP puzzle: Nominal exchange rate rigidity and region of inaction," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systematic risk; Currency carry trade; Momentum; Value; Conditional factor model; Currency variability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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