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New Evidence on the Forward Premium Puzzle

Author

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  • Boudoukh, Jacob
  • Richardson, Matthew
  • Whitelaw, Robert F.

Abstract

The forward premium anomaly (exchange rate changes are negatively related to interest rate differentials) is one of the most robust puzzles in financial economics. We recast the underlying parity relation in terms of lagged forward interest rate differentials, documenting a reversal of the anomalous sign on the coefficient in the traditional specification. We show that this novel evidence is consistent with recent empirical models of exchange rates that imply exchange rate changes depend on two key variables: the interest rate differential and the magnitude of the deviation of the current exchange rate from that implied by purchasing power parity.

Suggested Citation

  • Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2016. "New Evidence on the Forward Premium Puzzle," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 875-897, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:51:y:2016:i:03:p:875-897_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Lothian, James R., 2016. "Uncovered interest parity: The long and the short of it," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-7.
    2. Joseph, Byrne & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2020. "The Conditional Risk and Return Trade-Off on Currency Portfolios," MPRA Paper 99497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 27615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2023. "An investment-based explanation of currency excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2022. "The time-varying risk price of currency portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Liu, Yang & Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2022. "Government policy approval and exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 303-331.
    7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
    8. Andrew Filardo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "Effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies in a low interest rate environment," BIS Working Papers 691, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 894-932, August.
    10. Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew, 2018. "Multihorizon Currency Returns and Purchasing Power Parity," CEPR Discussion Papers 12893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Efthymios Argyropoulos & Nikolaos Elias & Dimitris Smyrnakis & Elias Tzavalis, 2021. "Can country-specific interest rate factors explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 252-269, April.
    12. Dahlquist, Magnus & Pénasse, Julien, 2022. "The missing risk premium in exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 697-715.
    13. Seungho Baek & Jeong Wan Lee & Kyong Joo Oh & Myoungji Lee, 2020. "Yield curve risks in currency carry forwards," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 651-670, April.
    14. Elias, Nikolaos & Smyrnakis, Dimitris & Tzavalis, Elias, 2022. "Predicting future exchange rate changes based on interest rates and holding-period returns differentials net of the forward risk premium effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 694-715.
    15. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Ogebe, Joseph O., 2019. "The validity of uncovered interest parity: Evidence from african members and non-member of the organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 229-249.
    16. Byrne, Joseph P. & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2021. "The conditional volatility premium on currency portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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