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Influences from the European Parliament on EU emissions prices

Author

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  • Deeney, Peter
  • Cummins, Mark
  • Dowling, Michael
  • Smeaton, Alan F.

Abstract

The decisions of the European Parliament (EP) are shown to influence both EU emission allowance (EUA) prices and volatility. Reductions in price and increases in volatility are observed when EP decisions are (i) not “party-political” in origin, (ii) made during times of low market sentiment, or (iii) made during times of low market attention. Daily EUA prices from 2007 to 2014 are used in the study, with decisions analysed using an event study approach for price impact, and a GARCH specification for volatility impact. Our findings suggest the need for policymakers to improve communication of long-term strategies for the EUA market. This aims to reduce the evident ongoing uncertainty experienced by traders around each decision made by the EP. The finding that sentiment and market attention at the time of an EP decision influences the market's reaction indicates a need to consider market dynamics in terms of decision timing, so that market turbulence is not an unintended by-product of an EP decision. Some form of medium term forward guidance may be called for.

Suggested Citation

  • Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Smeaton, Alan F., 2016. "Influences from the European Parliament on EU emissions prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 561-572.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:88:y:2016:i:c:p:561-572
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.06.026
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ye, Shunxin & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & He, Kaijian & Wei, Yi-Ming & Xie, Rui, 2019. "A multiscale analysis for carbon price drivers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 202-216.
    3. Marina Friedrich & Sébastien Fries & Michael Pahle & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2020. "Rules vs. Discretion in Cap-and-Trade Programs: Evidence from the EU Emission Trading System," CESifo Working Paper Series 8637, CESifo.
    4. Sattarhoff, Cristina & Gronwald, Marc, 2022. "Measuring informational efficiency of the European carbon market — A quantitative evaluation of higher order dependence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    6. Xu, Jia & Tan, Xiujie & He, Gang & Liu, Yu, 2019. "Disentangling the drivers of carbon prices in China's ETS pilots — An EEMD approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-9.
    7. Hanmin Dong & Xiujie Tan & Si Cheng & Yishuang Liu, 2023. "COVID-19, recovery policies and the resilience of EU ETS," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 2965-2991, October.
    8. Zhu, Bangzhu & Han, Dong & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Dynamic multiscale interactions between European carbon and electricity markets during 2005–2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 309-322.
    9. Yevheniia Antoniuk & Thomas Leirvik, 2021. "Climate Transition Risk and the Impact on Green Bonds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, December.
    10. Li, Houjian & Li, Qingman & Huang, Xinya & Guo, Lili, 2023. "Do green bonds and economic policy uncertainty matter for carbon price? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Zhu, Bangzhu & Yuan, Lili & Ye, Shunxin, 2019. "Examining the multi-timescales of European carbon market with grey relational analysis and empirical mode decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 392-399.
    12. Yue Xu & Dayu Zhai, 2022. "Impact of Changes in Membership on Prices of a Unified Carbon Market: Case Study of the European Union Emissions Trading System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, October.
    13. Chang, Kai & Ge, Fangping & Zhang, Chao & Wang, Weihong, 2018. "The dynamic linkage effect between energy and emissions allowances price for regional emissions trading scheme pilots in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-425.
    14. Chang, Kai & Chen, Rongda & Chevallier, Julien, 2018. "Market fragmentation, liquidity measures and improvement perspectives from China's emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 249-260.
    15. Jing Deng & Yujie Zheng & Yun Zhang & Cheng Liu & Huanxue Pan, 2023. "Dynamic Spillovers between Carbon Price and Power Sector Returns in China: A Network-Based Analysis before and after Launching National Carbon Emissions Trading Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-27, July.
    16. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hernandez, Jose Areola & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hedström, Axel, 2018. "Multivariate dependence and spillover effects across energy commodities and diversification potentials of carbon assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 35-46.
    17. Marina Friedrich & S'ebastien Fries & Michael Pahle & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2019. "Understanding the explosive trend in EU ETS prices -- fundamentals or speculation?," Papers 1906.10572, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    18. Ye, Jing & Xue, Minggao, 2021. "Influences of sentiment from news articles on EU carbon prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    19. Atalla, Tarek & Bigerna, Simona & Bollino, Carlo Andrea & Polinori, Paolo, 2018. "An alternative assessment of global climate policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1272-1289.
    20. Martina Assereto & Julie Byrne, 2020. "The Implications of Policy Uncertainty on Solar Photovoltaic Investment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU emission allowances; Market sentiment; Media exposure; European Parliament;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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