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Understanding the explosive trend in EU ETS prices -- fundamentals or speculation?

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Friedrich
  • S'ebastien Fries
  • Michael Pahle
  • Ottmar Edenhofer

Abstract

In 2018, allowance prices in the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) experienced a run-up from persistently low levels in previous years. Regulators attribute this to a comprehensive reform in the same year, and are confident the new price level reflects an anticipated tighter supply of allowances. We ask if this is indeed the case, or if it is an overreaction of the market driven by speculation. We combine several econometric methods - time-varying coefficient regression, formal bubble detection as well as time stamping and crash odds prediction - to juxtapose the regulators' claim versus the concurrent explanation. We find evidence of a long period of explosive behaviour in allowance prices, starting in March 2018 when the reform was adopted. Our results suggest that the reform triggered market participants into speculation, and question regulators' confidence in its long-term outcome. This has implications for both the further development of the EU ETS, and the long lasting debate about taxes versus emission trading schemes.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Friedrich & S'ebastien Fries & Michael Pahle & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2019. "Understanding the explosive trend in EU ETS prices -- fundamentals or speculation?," Papers 1906.10572, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1906.10572
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ryan Rafaty & Geoffroy Dolphin & Felix Pretis, 2020. "Carbon pricing and the elasticity of CO2 emissions," Working Papers EPRG2035, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    2. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2020.
    3. Tietjen, Oliver & Lessmann, Kai & Pahle, Michael, 2021. "Hedging and temporal permit issuances in cap-and-trade programs: The Market Stability Reserve under risk aversion," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Flachsland, Christian & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael, 2019. "Optionen für eine CO2-Preisreform," Working Papers 04/2019, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    5. Ohlendorf, Nils & Flachsland, Christian & Nemet, Gregory F. & Steckel, Jan Christoph, 2022. "Carbon price floors and low-carbon investment: A survey of German firms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

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