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Exploring the price dynamics of CO2 emissions allowances in China's emissions trading scheme pilots

Author

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  • Chang, Kai
  • Pei, Ping
  • Zhang, Chao
  • Wu, Xin

Abstract

Establishing regional emissions trading scheme pilots in China is a newly transformative and explorative practice. In this paper, we examine the spot price dynamics, asymmetric clustering and regime-switching behaviors of CO2 emissions allowances in the new China-wide emissions trading scheme (CETS) pilots using AR-GARCH, AR-TARCH and MRS-AR-GARCH models. The regional ETS pilots' design in China vary widely in their coverage thresholds, sector coverage, emissions allocation and caps setting methods, market trading rules and price stabilization provisions. Our empirical results indicate that the spot prices of regional emissions allowances exhibit significant dynamic behaviors, asymmetric leverage effects and regime-switching behaviors in the entire period considered; previous market overreactions in the Beijing, Tianjin and Guangdong pilots have stronger price clustering effects on future conditional variances than do the Shanghai and Hubei pilots. Unexpected market shocks and greater persistence in the Beijing, Tianjin and Guangdong ETS pilots display stronger market volatility and higher market risks, and their asymmetric leverage effects display a decreasing trend in the volatility of the BEA, TJEA and GDEA prices. The BEA and SHEA prices exhibit significant regime-switching behaviors, price jumps and higher volatility; in addition, the changes in the regime-switching phases are often related to the political mechanism design and the fundamental market factors. Those empirical results are beneficial for government decision-makers and market participants to strengthen risk management strategies, support emission-related investment decisions and optimize co-benefits of alternative energy-environmental policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Kai & Pei, Ping & Zhang, Chao & Wu, Xin, 2017. "Exploring the price dynamics of CO2 emissions allowances in China's emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 213-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:213-223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.07.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emissions allowances; China's emissions trading scheme; Price dynamics; Asymmetry effect; GARCH model; Regime-switching process;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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