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Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS

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Author Info

  • Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi
  • Jawadi, Fredj
  • Nguyen, Duc Khuong

Abstract

This paper uses the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the Switching Transition Regression-Exponential GARCH models (STR-EGARCH) to examine the dynamic relationships between the EU Emission Allowances (EUA) spot and futures prices during Phase II. Compared to the majority of previous studies, our empirical approach allows us to simultaneously capture asymmetry and nonlinearity effects in both return and volatility processes of carbon allowance prices. Our main findings show that carbon spot and futures returns are asymmetrically and nonlinearly linked, suggesting the usefulness of nonlinear models in pricing and forecasting carbon allowances prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 884-892

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:3:p:884-892

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Carbon pricing; CO2 allowance market; Spot and futures prices; Nonlinear models;

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References

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  1. repec:fth:erroem:9819/a is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
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  5. Beat Hintermann, 2009. "Allowance Price Drivers in the First Phase of the EU ETS," CEPE Working paper series 09-63, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  6. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
  7. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  8. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
  9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  10. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  11. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Neele, J. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Forecasting volatility with switching persistence GARCH models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9819, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of energy prices to CO2 emission allowance prices," NIPE Working Papers 05/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  2. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "What explains the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?," Working Papers 2014-081, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  3. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2014. "Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 201-206.
  4. Palzer, Andreas & Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Evaluation of Different Hedging Strategies for Commodity Price Risks of Industrial Cogeneration Plants," FCN Working Papers 2/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Mar 2013.

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