IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v14y2021i12p597-d699912.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate Transition Risk and the Impact on Green Bonds

Author

Listed:
  • Yevheniia Antoniuk

    (Nord University Business School, Nord University, 8049 Bodø, Norway)

  • Thomas Leirvik

    (Nord University Business School, Nord University, 8049 Bodø, Norway
    School of Business and Economics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
    NTNU Business School, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 8900 Trondheim, Norway)

Abstract

The green bond market develops rapidly and aims to contribute to climate mitigation and adaptation significantly. Green bonds as any asset are subject to transition climate risk, namely, regulatory risk. This paper investigates the impact of unexpected political events on the risk and returns of green bonds and their correlation with other assets. We apply a traditional and regression-based event study and find that events related to climate change policy impact green bonds indices. Green bonds indices anticipated the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change as a favorable event, whereas the 2016 US Presidential Election had a significant negative impact. The negative impact of the US withdrawal from the Paris agreement is more prominent for municipal but not corporate green bonds. All three events also have a similar effect on green bonds performance in the long term. The results imply that, despite the benefits of issuing green bonds, there are substantial risks that are difficult to hedge. This additional risk to green bonds might cause a time-varying premium for green bonds found in previous literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Yevheniia Antoniuk & Thomas Leirvik, 2021. "Climate Transition Risk and the Impact on Green Bonds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:12:p:597-:d:699912
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/12/597/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/14/12/597/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Duarte-Silva, Tiago & Tripolski Kimel, Maria, 2014. "Testing excess returns on event days: Log returns vs. dollar returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 173-182.
    3. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    4. Monasterolo, Irene & de Angelis, Luca, 2020. "Blind to carbon risk? An analysis of stock market reaction to the Paris Agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Andreas Karpf & Antoine Mandel, 2018. "The changing value of the ‘green’ label on the US municipal bond market," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(2), pages 161-165, February.
    6. Zeni, Federica, 2019. "Climate Regulation and Emissions Abatement: Theory and Evidence from Firms’ Disclosures," CEPR Discussion Papers 14155, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Reboredo, Juan C., 2018. "Green bond and financial markets: Co-movement, diversification and price spillover effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 38-50.
    8. Koch, Nicolas & Grosjean, Godefroy & Fuss, Sabine & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2016. "Politics matters: Regulatory events as catalysts for price formation under cap-and-trade," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 121-139.
    9. Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Gehricke, Sebastian A. & Roberts, Helen & Zhang, Renzhu, 2021. "Trump vs. Paris: The impact of climate policy on U.S. listed oil and gas firm returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea & Aiube, Fernando Antonio Lucena, 2020. "Network connectedness of green bonds and asset classes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Linh Pham, 2016. "Is it risky to go green? A volatility analysis of the green bond market," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 263-291, October.
    12. Candace Partridge & Francesca Romana Medda, 2020. "The evolution of pricing performance of green municipal bonds," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 44-64, January.
    13. Duqi, Andi & McGowan, Danny & Onali, Enrico & Torluccio, Giuseppe, 2021. "Natural disasters and economic growth: The role of banking market structure," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Tran, Vu Le & Leirvik, Thomas, 2019. "A simple but powerful measure of market efficiency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 141-151.
    15. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Smeaton, Alan F., 2016. "Influences from the European Parliament on EU emissions prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 561-572.
    16. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard J. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2018. "Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 428-451.
    17. Broadstock, David C. & Cheng, Louis T.W., 2019. "Time-varying relation between black and green bond price benchmarks: Macroeconomic determinants for the first decade," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 17-22.
    18. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    19. Kanamura, Takashi, 2020. "Are green bonds environmentally friendly and good performing assets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Torsten Ehlers & Frank Packer, 2017. "Green bond finance and certification," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    21. Pham, Linh & Luu Duc Huynh, Toan, 2020. "How does investor attention influence the green bond market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    22. Olivier David Zerbib, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Post-Print halshs-02008641, HAL.
    23. Editorial, 2020. "Covid-19 and Climate Change," Journal, Review of Agrarian Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 5-6, January-J.
    24. Febi, Wulandari & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas & Sun, Chen, 2018. "The impact of liquidity risk on the yield spread of green bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 53-59.
    25. Zerbib, Olivier David, 2019. "The effect of pro-environmental preferences on bond prices: Evidence from green bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 39-60.
    26. Edith Ginglinger & Quentin Moreau, 2023. "Climate Risk and Capital Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7492-7516, December.
    27. Fatica, Serena & Panzica, Roberto & Rancan, Michela, 2021. "The pricing of green bonds: Are financial institutions special?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    28. Moritz Immel & Britta Hachenberg & Florian Kiesel & Dirk Schiereck, 2021. "Green bonds: shades of green and brown," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 96-109, March.
    29. Emanuele Campiglio & Yannis Dafermos & Pierre Monnin & Josh Ryan-Collins & Guido Schotten & Misa Tanaka, 2018. "Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 462-468, June.
    30. Heyden, Kim J. & Heyden, Thomas, 2021. "Market reactions to the arrival and containment of COVID-19: An event study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    31. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2020. "Price connectedness between green bond and financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 25-38.
    32. Zhang, Dayong & Zhang, Zhiwei & Managi, Shunsuke, 2019. "A bibliometric analysis on green finance: Current status, development, and future directions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 425-430.
    33. Mukanjari, Samson & Sterner, Thomas, 2018. "Do Markets Trump Politics? Evidence from Fossil Market Reactions to the Paris Agreement and the U.S. Election," Working Papers in Economics 728, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    34. Jin, Jiayu & Han, Liyan & Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2020. "The hedging effect of green bonds on carbon market risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Meihui Zhang & Chi Zhang & Fenghua Li & Ziyu Liu, 2022. "Green Finance as an Institutional Mechanism to Direct the Belt and Road Initiative towards Sustainability: The Case of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-31, May.
    2. Monika Hadaś-Dyduch & Blandyna Puszer & Maria Czech & Janusz Cichy, 2022. "Green Bonds as an Instrument for Financing Ecological Investments in the V4 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-48, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Ghardallou, Wafa & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Is greenness an optimal hedge for sectoral stock indices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Giuseppe Cortellini & Ida Claudia Panetta, 2021. "Green Bond: A Systematic Literature Review for Future Research Agendas," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-29, December.
    3. Román Ferrer & Rafael Benítez & Vicente J. Bolós, 2021. "Interdependence between Green Financial Instruments and Major Conventional Assets: A Wavelet-Based Network Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Kocaarslan, Baris & Soytas, Ugur, 2023. "The role of major markets in predicting the U.S. municipal green bond market performance: New evidence from machine learning models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Bhutta, Umair Saeed & Tariq, Adeel & Farrukh, Muhammad & Raza, Ali & Iqbal, Muhammad Khalid, 2022. "Green bonds for sustainable development: Review of literature on development and impact of green bonds," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2023. "What do we know about the price spillover between green bonds and Islamic stocks and stock market indices?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Comparative efficiency of green and conventional bonds pre- and during COVID-19: An asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    8. Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Alawi, Suha M. & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2021. "COVID-19 and time-frequency connectedness between green and conventional financial markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    9. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2022. "Green bond vs conventional bond: Outline the rationale behind issuance choices in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Liu, Min, 2022. "The driving forces of green bond market volatility and the response of the market to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 288-309.
    11. Umar, Zaghum & Abrar, Afsheen & Hadhri, Sinda & Sokolova, Tatiana, 2023. "The connectedness of oil shocks, green bonds, sukuks and conventional bonds," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    12. Yuan, Xi & Qin, Meng & Zhong, Yifan & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2023. "Financial roles in green investment based on the quantile connectedness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea & Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier, 2022. "Do green bonds de-risk investment in low-carbon stocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    14. Arif, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2022. "Diversifier or more? Hedge and safe haven properties of green bonds during COVID-19," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    15. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M.Ángeles & Caby, Jérôme & Šević, Aleksandar, 2021. "The influence of investor sentiment on the green bond market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. Chuc Anh Tu & Tapan Sarker & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, 2020. "Factors Influencing the Green Bond Market Expansion: Evidence from a Multi-Dimensional Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14, June.
    17. Joao Leitao & Joaquim Ferreira & Ernesto Santibanez‐Gonzalez, 2021. "Green bonds, sustainable development and environmental policy in the European Union carbon market," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 2077-2090, May.
    18. Juan Camilo Mejía-Escobar & Juan David González-Ruiz & Giovanni Franco-Sepúlveda, 2021. "Current State and Development of Green Bonds Market in the Latin America and the Caribbean," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-25, September.
    19. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "Relationship between green bonds and financial and environmental variables: A novel time-varying causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    20. Su, Tong & Zhang, Zuopeng (Justin) & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "Green bonds and conventional financial markets in China: A tale of three transmission modes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:14:y:2021:i:12:p:597-:d:699912. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.