Monetary policy and asset prices with belief-driven fluctuations
AbstractWe present a heterogeneous agents New-Keynesian model subject to a cost channel of monetary policy transmission. Constant turnover between long-time traders and newcomers in market activities, combined with restricted trading opportunities, introduces a feedback from the stock market to real activity, making stock prices non-redundant for the business cycle. We show that strict inflation targeting can lead to equilibrium indeterminacy, even if the policy rule satisfies the Taylor principle. A belief-driven shock to stock price generates relative volatilities of key financial variables which are very close to what is observed in U.S. data. This result hints to the possibility that the financial instability witnessed since the mid-to-late 1990s was the result of waves of (rational) exuberance and pessimism in financial markets. Our analysis suggests that a mild response to stock prices in the central bank's policy rule can restore equilibrium determinacy and therefore rule out non-fundamental volatility.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc
Equilibrium determinacy; Asset prices; Cost channel; Monetary policy; Heterogeneous agents;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
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- Airaudo, Marco & Nisticò, Salvatore & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-12, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
- Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2012.
"House prices, credit growth, and excess volatility: implications for monetary and macroprudential policy,"
Working Paper Series
2012-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
- Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J. & Mendicino, Caterina, 2012. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," Dynare Working Papers 21, CEPREMAP.
- Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "House prices, credit growth, and excess volatility: Implications for monetary and macroprudential policy," Working Paper 2012/08, Norges Bank.
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