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Monetary policy and asset prices with belief-driven fluctuations

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  • Airaudo, Marco
  • Cardani, Roberta
  • Lansing, Kevin J.

Abstract

We present a heterogeneous agents New-Keynesian model subject to a cost channel of monetary policy transmission. Constant turnover between long-time traders and newcomers in market activities, combined with restricted trading opportunities, introduces a feedback from the stock market to real activity, making stock prices non-redundant for the business cycle. We show that strict inflation targeting can lead to equilibrium indeterminacy, even if the policy rule satisfies the Taylor principle. A belief-driven shock to stock price generates relative volatilities of key financial variables which are very close to what is observed in U.S. data. This result hints to the possibility that the financial instability witnessed since the mid-to-late 1990s was the result of waves of (rational) exuberance and pessimism in financial markets. Our analysis suggests that a mild response to stock prices in the central bank's policy rule can restore equilibrium determinacy and therefore rule out non-fundamental volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1453-1478

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:1453-1478

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Equilibrium determinacy; Asset prices; Cost channel; Monetary policy; Heterogeneous agents;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Airaudo, Marco & Nisticò, Salvatore & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-12, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
  2. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Alaa M. Soliman, 2014. "Aspects of Macroeconomic Policy Combinations and Their Effects on Financial Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 95-118, March.
  3. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "House prices, credit growth, and excess volatility: Implications for monetary and macroprudential policy," Working Paper 2012/08, Norges Bank.
  4. Airaudo, Marco, 2013. "Monetary policy, stock prices, and consumption externalities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 537-541.

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