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Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  2. Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2015. "Financialization of Agricultural Commodity Markets: Do Financial Data Help to Forecast Agricultural Prices?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205124, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  3. Carl Bonham & Peter Fuleky & James Jones & Ashley Hirashima, 2015. "Nowcasting Tourism Industry Performance Using High Frequency Covariates," Working Papers 2015-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  4. Ding Du & Ronald J Gunderson & Xiaobing Zhao, 2016. "Investor sentiment and oil prices," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 73-88, March.
  5. Lu Wang & Feng Ma & Guoshan Liu & Qiaoqi Lang, 2023. "Do extreme shocks help forecast oil price volatility? The augmented GARCH‐MIDAS approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2056-2073, April.
  6. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 931-968, August.
  7. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2016. "Heterogeneous agents, the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-359.
  8. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 33-43.
  9. Ding, Yishan, 2018. "A novel decompose-ensemble methodology with AIC-ANN approach for crude oil forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 328-336.
  10. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil under economic and statistical constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-608.
  11. Li, Xuemei & Liu, Xiaoxing, 2023. "Functional classification and dynamic prediction of cumulative intraday returns in crude oil futures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
  12. Qifa Xu & Lu Chen & Cuixia Jiang & Yezheng Liu, 2022. "Forecasting expected shortfall and value at risk with a joint elicitable mixed data sampling model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 407-421, April.
  13. Xing, Li-Min & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil prices with shrinkage methods: Can nonconvex penalty and Huber loss help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  14. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & Yelou, Clement, 2018. "Oil Price Forecasts For The Long Term: Expert Outlooks, Models, Or Both?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 581-599, April.
  15. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2017. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 275-295, March.
  16. Chu, Pyung Kun & Hoff, Kristian & Molnár, Peter & Olsvik, Magnus, 2022. "Crude oil: Does the futures price predict the spot price?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  17. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting commodity market volatility with long‐term economic and financial variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 126-142, March.
  18. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2022. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A robust weighted least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  19. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2017. "How do daily changes in oil prices affect US monthly industrial output?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 83-90.
  20. Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil futures market returns: A principal component analysis combination approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 659-673.
  21. Li, Jingjing & Tang, Ling & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "Forecasting crude oil price with multilingual search engine data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
  22. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jin-Li, 2019. "Do high-frequency stock market data help forecast crude oil prices? Evidence from the MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-201.
  23. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  24. Jian Chai & Puju Cao & Xiaoyang Zhou & Kin Keung Lai & Xiaofeng Chen & Siping (Sue) Su, 2018. "The Conductive and Predictive Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations on China’s Industry Development Based on Mixed-Frequency Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, May.
  25. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Shi, Benshan & Huang, Dengshi, 2018. "Forecasting the prices of crude oil: An iterated combination approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 472-483.
  26. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2023. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  27. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
  28. Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem & AlHajhoj, Hassan Rafdan, 2016. "Long run dynamic volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 384-394.
  29. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
  30. Bos, Martijn & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Oil returns and volatility: The role of mergers and acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 62-69.
  31. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  32. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  33. Cheng, Xian & Wu, Peng & Liao, Stephen Shaoyi & Wang, Xuelian, 2023. "An integrated model for crude oil forecasting: Causality assessment and technical efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  34. Morita, Hiroshi & 森田, 裕史, 2019. "Forecasting Public Investment Using Daily Stock Returns," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-88, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
  35. Philip ME Garboden, 2019. "Sources and Types of Big Data for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  36. Baruník, Jozef & Malinská, Barbora, 2016. "Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 366-379.
  37. Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2021. "Predictability of Aggregated Time Series," LCERPA Working Papers bm0127, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
  38. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Xu, Jin & Zhang, Zehui, 2022. "Oil futures volatility predictability: New evidence based on machine learning models11All the authors contribute to the paper equally," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  39. Funk, Christoph, 2018. "Forecasting the real price of oil - Time-variation and forecast combination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 288-302.
  40. Kertlly de Medeiros, Rennan & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio & Pitta de Jesus, Diego & Phillipe de Albuquerquemello, Vinicius, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices: New approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
  41. Dbouk, Wassim & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2018. "Predicting daily oil prices: Linear and non-linear models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 149-165.
  42. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2018. "Asymmetric responses in the timing, and magnitude, of changes in Australian monthly petrol prices to daily oil price changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 89-100.
  43. Li, Xuerong & Shang, Wei & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Text-based crude oil price forecasting: A deep learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1548-1560.
  44. Tretyakov, Dmitriy & Fokin, Nikita, 2020. "Помогают Ли Высокочастотные Данные В Прогнозировании Российской Инфляции? [Does the high-frequency data is helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?]," MPRA Paper 109556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Hirashima, Ashley & Jones, James & Bonham, Carl S. & Fuleky, Peter, 2017. "Forecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaii Tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 191-202.
  46. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Mengxi & Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil price returns: Can nonlinearity help?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
  47. Lynda Khalaf & Beatriz Peraza López, 2020. "Simultaneous Indirect Inference, Impulse Responses and ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-26, April.
  48. Julián Alonso Cárdenas-Cárdenas & Edgar Caicedo-García & Eliana R. González Molano, 2020. "Estimación de la variación del precio de los alimentos con modelos de frecuencias mixtas," Borradores de Economia 1109, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  49. Gupta, Rangan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "OPEC news and predictability of oil futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 206-214.
  50. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2017. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using forecast combinations over time-varying parameter models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 337-348.
  51. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with a large set of predictors: Can LASSO select powerful predictors?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-117.
  52. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil prices," MPRA Paper 77531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. Hao, Xianfeng & Zhao, Yuyang & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using robust regression models with regularization constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  54. Xu, Qifa & Zhuo, Xingxuan & Jiang, Cuixia & Liu, Xi & Liu, Yezheng, 2018. "Group penalized unrestricted mixed data sampling model with application to forecasting US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 221-236.
  55. Ding Du & Xiaobing Zhao, 2017. "Financial investor sentiment and the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 331-361, February.
  56. Maghyereh Aktham & Sweidan Osama & Awartani Basel, 2020. "Asymmetric Responses of Economic Growth to Daily Oil Price Changes: New Global Evidence from Mixed-data Sampling Approach," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 71(2), pages 81-99, August.
  57. Considine, Jennifer & Galkin, Philipp & Aldayel, Abdullah, 2022. "Inventories and the term structure of oil prices: A complex relationship," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  58. Ellwanger, Reinhard & Snudden, Stephen, 2023. "Forecasts of the real price of oil revisited: Do they beat the random walk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  59. Wang, Jue & Zhou, Hao & Hong, Tao & Li, Xiang & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "A multi-granularity heterogeneous combination approach to crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  60. Wang, Ruina & Li, Jinfang, 2021. "The influence and predictive powers of mixed-frequency individual stock sentiment on stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  61. Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Qing & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Forecasting U.S. real GDP using oil prices: A time-varying parameter MIDAS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-187.
  62. Zied Ftiti & Kais Tissaoui & Sahbi Boubaker, 2022. "On the relationship between oil and gas markets: a new forecasting framework based on a machine learning approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 915-943, June.
  63. Gun Il Kim & Beakcheol Jang, 2023. "Petroleum Price Prediction with CNN-LSTM and CNN-GRU Using Skip-Connection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, January.
  64. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2021. "Intraday return predictability in China’s crude oil futures market: New evidence from a unique trading mechanism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 209-219.
  65. Zhaojie Luo & Xiaojing Cai & Katsuyuki Tanaka & Tetsuya Takiguchi & Takuji Kinkyo & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2019. "Can We Forecast Daily Oil Futures Prices? Experimental Evidence from Convolutional Neural Networks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, January.
  66. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2018. "Forecasting oil prices: High-frequency financial data are indeed useful," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 388-402.
  67. Yu, Dan & Chen, Chuang & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Hedging pressure momentum and the predictability of oil futures returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  68. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Predictability of crude oil prices: An investor perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 193-205.
  69. Danish A. Alvi, 2018. "Application of Probabilistic Graphical Models in Forecasting Crude Oil Price," Papers 1804.10869, arXiv.org.
  70. Lu, Botao & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jiqian & Ding, Hui & Wahab, M.I.M., 2021. "Harnessing the decomposed realized measures for volatility forecasting: Evidence from the US stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 672-689.
  71. George Filis & Stavros Degiannakis & Zacharias Bragoudakis, 2022. "Forecasting macroeconomic indicators for Eurozone and Greece: How useful are the oil price assumptions?," Working Papers 296, Bank of Greece.
  72. Jiang, Cuixia & Xiong, Wei & Xu, Qifa & Liu, Yezheng, 2021. "Predicting default of listed companies in mainland China via U-MIDAS Logit model with group lasso penalty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
  73. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Hao, Jianyang & Gao, Xinxin, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with geopolitical risk: Do time-varying switching probabilities play a role?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  74. Honorata Nyga-Łukaszewska & Kentaka Aruga, 2020. "Energy Prices and COVID-Immunity: The Case of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices in the US and Japan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-17, November.
  75. Mahmut Gunay, 2020. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP with MIDAS: Role of Functional Form of the Lag Polynomial," Working Papers 2002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  76. Changyu Liu & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Saqib Farid & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Oil as Hedge, Safe-Haven, and Diversifier for Conventional Currencies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
  77. Snudden, Stephen, 2018. "Targeted growth rates for long-horizon crude oil price forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-16.
  78. Ding, Lili & Zhao, Zhongchao & Han, Meng, 2021. "Probability density forecasts for steam coal prices in China: The role of high-frequency factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
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