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Point and Density Forecasts of Oil Returns: The Role of Geopolitical Risks

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  1. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between uncertainty and energy markets: Do investor sentiments matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  2. Asai, Manabu & Gupta, Rangan & McAleer, Michael, 2020. "Forecasting volatility and co-volatility of crude oil and gold futures: Effects of leverage, jumps, spillovers, and geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 933-948.
  3. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  4. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  5. Oktay Ozkan & Asima Saleem & Nasir Khan & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2025. "Global impact of geopolitical oil price uncertainty and associated commodity prices on clean energy stocks," Energy & Environment, , vol. 36(7), pages 3501-3526, November.
  6. Li, Yingli & Huang, Jianbai & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers of geopolitical risks and gold prices: New evidence from 18 emerging economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  7. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2018. "Geopolitical Risks and the Predictability of Regional Oil Returns and Volatility," Working Papers 201860, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  8. Shi, Chunpei & Wei, Yu & Li, Xiafei & Liu, Yuntong, 2023. "Combination forecasts of China's oil futures returns based on multiple uncertainties and their connectedness with oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  9. Loc Dong Truong & Nhien Tuyet Doan & Anh Thi Kim Nguyen, 2024. "The Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Price Volatility," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 14(1), pages 427-432, January.
  10. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
  11. Jia, Lijun & Xu, Ruoyu & Wu, Jian & Song, Malin & Chen, Xueli, 2023. "Impacts of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty on metal futures price volatility: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
  12. repec:pra:mprapa:99376 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Yan, Wan-Lin & (Wai Kong) Cheung, Adrian & Yuan, Jiawei, 2026. "The impact of green cryptocurrency and nongreen cryptocurrency on energy markets: Evidence from geopolitical risk and higher-order moment connectedness," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  14. Wang, Zhe & Teng, Yin-Pei & Wu, Shuzhao & Liu, Yuxiang & Liu, Xianchang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, financial system and natural resources extraction: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  15. Boying Li & Chun-Ping Chang & Yin Chu & Bo Sui, 2020. "Oil prices and geopolitical risks: What implications are offered via multi-domain investigations?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(3), pages 492-516, May.
  16. Hanen Ben Ameur & Fouad Jamaani & Mohammed N Abu Alfoul, 2025. "The dynamic connectedness among infectious diseases, geopolitical risks, cryptocurrency, and commodity markets: Evidence from a partial and multiple wavelet analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(7), pages 1-19, July.
  17. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Tang, Huayun & Li, Ding, 2022. "The roles of oil shocks and geopolitical uncertainties on China’s green bond returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 494-505.
  18. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  19. S, Aiswarya & Muralikrishna, Muthumeenakshi, . "Time-frequency analysis of geopolitical risk and food commodity market: a wavelet based investigation," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 11(2).
  20. Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2021. "Time-varying interactions between geopolitical risks and renewable energy consumption," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 116-137.
  21. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "An interesting finding about the ability of geopolitical risk to forecast aggregate equity return volatility out-of-sample," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
  22. Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Safe Havens, Machine Learning, and the Sources of Geopolitical Risk: A Forecasting Analysis Using Over a Century of Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(1), pages 487-513, July.
  23. Le Thanh Ha, 2025. "Assessing Dynamic Relationships Between Geopolitical Risks and Energy‐Related Uncertainty: New Perspectives From the R2 Decomposed Linkage Method," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2025(1).
  24. Yang, Cai & Niu, Zibo & Gao, Wang, 2022. "The time-varying effects of trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks shocks on the commodity market prices: Evidence from the TVP-VAR-SV approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  25. Gong, Xiao-Li & Jia, Kai-Wen & Xiong, Xiong, 2025. "How major geopolitical events affect tail risk contagion in global crude oil markets —evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  26. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Tahmina Akhter & Faik Bilgili & Md. Akther Uddin & Samiha Binte Tariq, 2026. "Time-Varying Connectedness Among Oil Price Shocks, Global Conditions, and Financial Stress in South and Southeast Asian Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 68(2), pages 1337-1377, August.
  27. Sarit Maitra, 2023. "Impact of Economic Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, Pandemic, Financial & Macroeconomic Factors on Crude Oil Returns -- An Empirical Investigation," Papers 2310.01123, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  28. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yong-Yi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  29. Qin, Yun & Hong, Kairong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Zitao, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  30. Wang, Zhuqing & Wang, Xinyu & Cheng, Qiuying & Shi, Song, 2024. "Heterogeneous impact of economic and political uncertainty on green bond volatility: Evidence from the MRS-GARCH-MIDAS-Skewed T model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
  31. Francesco Zanetti & Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos, 2026. "The Effects of Geopolitical Oil Price Shocks," CIGS Working Paper Series 26-005E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
  32. Zhang, Bin & Liu, Zuyao & Wang, Zhaohua & Zhang, Shuang, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on energy security: Evidence from a GMM panel VAR approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
  33. Guo, Jingjun & Zhao, Zhengling & Sun, Jingyun & Sun, Shaolong, 2022. "Multi-perspective crude oil price forecasting with a new decomposition-ensemble framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  34. Nima Nonejad, 2024. "Point forecasts of the price of crude oil: an attempt to “beat” the end-of-month random-walk benchmark," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1497-1539, October.
  35. Cheikh, Nidhaleddine Ben & Zaied, Younes Ben, 2023. "Investigating the dynamics of crude oil and clean energy markets in times of geopolitical tensions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  36. Si Mohammed, Kamel & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Doğan, Buhari & Sharma, Gagan Deep & Mentel, Urszula, 2023. "The reaction of the metal and gold resource planning in the post-COVID-19 era and Russia-Ukrainian conflict: Role of fossil fuel markets for portfolio hedging strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  37. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Predicting equity premium out-of-sample by conditioning on newspaper-based uncertainty measures: A comparative study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  38. Muğaloğlu, Erhan & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Aldieri, Luigi & Alnour, Mohammed & Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Magazzino, Cosimo & Bilgili, Faik, 2023. "Dynamic regime differences in the market behavior of primary natural resources in response to geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
  39. Ahmed, Faroque & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Sohag, Kazi & Islam, Md. Monirul & Zeqiraj, Veton, 2024. "Global, local, or glocal? Unravelling the interplay of geopolitical risks and financial stress," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  40. Ma, Yong & Li, Shuaibing & Zhou, Mingtao, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil prices: Does global financial uncertainty matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PC).
  41. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk, 2025. "Multilayer connectedness across geopolitical risks, clean, and dirty energy markets: The role of global uncertainty factors and climate surprise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  42. Mo, Bin & Chen, Jiaru & Shi, Qinling & Zeng, Zichun, 2025. "Cryptocurrencies as safe havens for geopolitical risk? A quantile analysis approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  43. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
  44. Xiao, Jihong & Liu, Hong, 2023. "The time-varying impact of uncertainty on oil market fear: Does climate policy uncertainty matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  45. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Ali Yavuz Polat & Hasan Tekin & Ahmet Semih Tunalı, 2023. "The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6), pages 791-809, August.
  46. Wang, Yuhao & Chen, Huayou & Xu, Xuetao, 2025. "A weekly crude oil price interval-valued prediction architecture on fusion of decomposition technique and adaptive integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
  47. Klepikov, Vladimir Pavlovich & Klepikov, Vladimir Vladimirovich, 2020. "Quantitative approach to estimating crude oil supply in Southern Europe," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
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  50. Tang, Yumei & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Sarker, Provash Kumer & Baroudi, Sarra, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
  51. Zhang, Yunyi & Hu, Ting & Xiao, Shuang, 2025. "Forecasting crude oil price volatility with uncertainty: New modeling with multivariate selection," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  52. Sohag, Kazi & Karass, Vsevolod & Alam, Khorshed, 2025. "European industrial production in the face of energy dynamics and geopolitical shocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
  53. Layal Mansour-Ichrakieh, 2021. "The Impact of Israeli and Saudi Arabian Geopolitical Risks on the Lebanese Financial Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, February.
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  55. Le, Thanh Ha, 2023. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness between cryptocurrency volatility and renewable energy volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine-Russia conflicts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 613-625.
  56. Faroque Ahmed & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "Spillover effects of separated oil price shocks on regional financial stress amidst Russia–Ukraine and global geopolitical tensions: a novel GVAR approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(3), pages 593-639, September.
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