IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0324599.html

The dynamic connectedness among infectious diseases, geopolitical risks, cryptocurrency, and commodity markets: Evidence from a partial and multiple wavelet analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hanen Ben Ameur
  • Fouad Jamaani
  • Mohammed N Abu Alfoul

Abstract

This study investigates the co-movements between prominent financial assets—crude oil, natural gas, gold, and Bitcoin—and uncertainty indices, including the Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker (IDEMV) and the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), from January 2017 to January 2023. By employing advanced wavelet techniques—Wavelet Power Spectrum (WPS), Bi-Wavelet Coherence (WCA), Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC), and Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC)—we analyze their time- and frequency-dependent responses to market shocks. The results reveal that Bitcoin and WTI exhibit time-varying sensitivity to IDEMV, particularly at short- and medium-term frequencies, highlighting their vulnerability to health-related crises like COVID-19. In contrast, gold and natural gas respond more strongly to GPR, with gold demonstrating a long-term leading role during geopolitical uncertainties, while Bitcoin and WTI lead in health-related shocks. The Russia-Ukraine conflict further amplified GPR’s impact on Bitcoin and increased natural gas’s vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions. These findings underscore the need for tailored strategies to address health and geopolitical risks. Policymakers should enhance crisis-response frameworks for Bitcoin and crude oil, while investors can reduce uncertainty by diversifying portfolios with resilient assets like gold and natural gas.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanen Ben Ameur & Fouad Jamaani & Mohammed N Abu Alfoul, 2025. "The dynamic connectedness among infectious diseases, geopolitical risks, cryptocurrency, and commodity markets: Evidence from a partial and multiple wavelet analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(7), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0324599
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324599
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0324599
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0324599&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0324599?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Point and density forecasts of oil returns: The role of geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 580-587.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Syed Ali Raza & Larisa Yarovaya & Khaled Guesmi & Nida Shah, 2022. "Google Trends and cryptocurrencies: a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles analysis," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(12), pages 5972-5989, May.
    4. Klein, Tony, 2017. "Dynamic correlation of precious metals and flight-to-quality in developed markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 283-290.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    2. Lewkowicz, Jacek & Woźniak, Michał & Wrzesiński, Michał, 2022. "COVID-19 and erosion of democracy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Kumar, Anand & Priya, Bhawna & Srivastava, Samir K., 2021. "Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 76-94.
    4. Jin, Hyun Joung & Kim, Jang-Chul & Su, Qing, 2025. "Economic freedom and market resilience: Safeguarding liquidity in times of crisis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Vladimir Arčabić, 2020. "Koronakriza i što Hrvatska može naučiti iz dosadašnjih recesija," Tradicionalni skup Hrvatskog društva ekonomista u Opatiji - objavljena poglavlja, in: Josip Tica & Katarina Bačić (ed.), Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije, volume 28, chapter 1, pages 21-58, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists).
    8. Comunale, Mariarosaria & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2025. "A comprehensive MacroEconomic uncertainty measure for the euro area and its implications to COVID-19," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    9. Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2021. "Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History," Working Papers 210002, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    10. Jia, Lijun & Xu, Ruoyu & Wu, Jian & Song, Malin & Chen, Xueli, 2023. "Impacts of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty on metal futures price volatility: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    11. Yanguas Parra, Paola & Hauenstein, Christian & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2021. "The death valley of coal – Modelling COVID-19 recovery scenarios for steam coal markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    12. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market returns: Enhanced moving average technical indicators," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Jianchun Fang & Giray Gozgor & Sercan Pekel, 2020. "Where You Export Matters: Measuring Uncertainty in Turkey's Export Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 8404, CESifo.
    14. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "An interesting finding about the ability of geopolitical risk to forecast aggregate equity return volatility out-of-sample," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    16. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Noman, Ambreen, 2021. "The volatility connectedness of the EU carbon market with commodity and financial markets in time- and frequency-domain: The role of the U.S. economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Matías Brum & Mauricio de Rosa, 2020. "Too little but not too late. Nowcasting poverty and cash transfers' incidence in Uruguay during COVID-19's crisis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 20-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    18. Alameer, Zakaria & Elaziz, Mohamed Abd & Ewees, Ahmed A. & Ye, Haiwang & Jianhua, Zhang, 2019. "Forecasting gold price fluctuations using improved multilayer perceptron neural network and whale optimization algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 250-260.
    19. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Ilias, 2021. "Economic stimulus through bank regulation: Government responses to the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting commodity market volatility with long‐term economic and financial variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 126-142, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0324599. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.