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Planning to cheat: EU fiscal policy in real time
[‘What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU?’]

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
  2. repec:prg:jnlcfu:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:id:572 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Pina, Álvaro M. & Venes, Nuno M., 2011. "The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 534-546, September.
  4. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2021. "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 337-349.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  6. Jeffrey Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2013. "Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(2), pages 247-272, June.
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2012. "Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules," NBER Working Papers 18283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro M. Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2021. "Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?," IMF Working Papers 2021/154, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 3939, CESifo.
  10. Christos Chrysanthakopoulos & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2024. "Tax policy cyclicality and financial development," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 48-57.
  11. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  12. Fabrizio Casalin & Floriana Cerniglia & Enzo Dia, 2021. "Stock-flow adjustments and interest costs in public debt dynamics," CRANEC - Working Papers del Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale crn2102, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Centro di Ricerche in Analisi economica e sviluppo economico internazionale (CRANEC).
  13. Julia del Amo Valor & Marcos Martín Mateos & Diego Martínez López & Javier J. Pérez, 2023. "Is the European economic governance framework too “complex”? A critical discussion," Working Papers 2023-06, FEDEA.
  14. Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Fang, Xiangming & Kim, Young & Lledó, Victor & Mbaye, Samba & Zhang, Xiaoxiao, 2019. "Independent fiscal councils: Recent trends and performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 53-69.
  15. Slawomir Franek, 2016. "Measurement of Fiscal Council Independence in the Countries of the European Union (Pomiar niezaleznosci rad fiskalnych w krajach Unii Europejskiej)," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 14(63), pages 159-168.
  16. Florian Dorn & Stefanie Gaebler & Felix Roesel, 2021. "Ineffective fiscal rules? The effect of public sector accounting standards on budgets, efficiency, and accountability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 387-412, March.
  17. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2021. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  18. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2017. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: follow-up, multipliers and confidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 407-430, September.
  20. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2024. "The medium-term effects of fiscal policy rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  21. Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2015. "Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 287-307, September.
  22. Niels Gilbert & Jasper de Jong, 2014. "Does the Stability and Growth Pact induce a bias in the EC's fiscal forecasts," DNB Working Papers 451, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  23. Kevin Lee & James Morley & Kian Ong & Kalvinder Shields, 2018. "Measuring the fiscal multiplier when plans take time to implement," Discussion Papers 2018/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  24. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  25. Hirota, Haruaki & Yunoue, Hideo, 2022. "Fiscal rules and creative accounting: Evidence from Japanese municipalities," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  26. Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco José Veiga, 2014. "Determinants of Portuguese local governments’ indebtedness," NIPE Working Papers 16/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  27. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
  28. Ademmer Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe Jens, 2022. "The Impact of Forecast Errors on Fiscal Planning and Debt Accumulation," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 242(2), pages 171-190, April.
  29. Bachleitner, Alena & Prammer, Doris, 2024. "Don’t blame the government!? An assessment of debt forecast errors with a view to the EU Economic Governance Review," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  30. End, Nicolas, 2023. "Big Brother is also being watched: Measuring fiscal credibility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  31. Jiří Šindelář, 2022. "The accuracy of state budget planning: case of the Czech Republic [Úspěšnost plánování státního rozpočtu ČR]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(1), pages 35-58.
  32. Gootjes, Bram, 2025. "Kicking the can down the road? A real-time data analysis of delayed fiscal consolidation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  33. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
  34. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  35. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2021. "The (pro-) cyclicality of government consumption in the EU and official expectations of future output growth: new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 331-345, May.
  36. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.
  37. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2020. "Asymmetric macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal consolidation in the OECD and the Euro Area," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-09, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  38. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Vítor Ribeiro Laufer Calafate, 2021. "Lack of fiscal transparency and economic growth expectations: an empirical assessment from a large emerging economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2985-3027, December.
  39. Théo METZ, 2024. "New fiscal transparency index and public debt borrowing costs," Working Papers of BETA 2024-50, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  40. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
  41. Bessho, Shun-ichiro & Hirota, Haruaki, 2023. "Do public account financial statements matter? Evidence from Japanese municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  42. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirical Studies on Public Debt and Fiscal Transfers," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.
  43. Slawomir Franek, 2015. "Are Independent Fiscal Institutions Really Independent?," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 3(3), pages 35-44.
  44. Luisa Giuriato & Alessandra Cepparulo & Matteo Barberi, 2016. "Fiscal forecasts and political systems: a legislative budgeting perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-22, July.
  45. Guido Baldi, 2016. "Fiscal policy rules, budget deficits, and forecasting biases," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 185-194, April.
  46. Larch, Martin & Orseau, Eloïse & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2021. "Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  47. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
  48. Sanjeev Gupta & João T Jalles & Carlos Mulas-Granados & Michela Schena, 2018. "Planned fiscal adjustments: Do governments fulfil their commitments?," European Union Politics, , vol. 19(3), pages 383-407, September.
  49. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_034 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
  51. Sophia Gollwitzer & Eteri Kvintradze & Mr. Tej Prakash & Luis-Felipe Zanna & Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Richard I Allen & Irene Yackovlev & Victor Duarte Lledo, 2010. "Budget Institutions and Fiscal Performance in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/080, International Monetary Fund.
  52. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1113-1131.
  53. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
  54. Patrícia Martins & Leonida Correia, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts and Slippages: The Role of the SGP and Domestic Fiscal Frameworks," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 226-253, June.
  55. Hirota, Haruaki & Yunoue, Hideo, 2015. "地方財政健全化指標における相互依存関係の実証分析 [Interdependency of Financial Indexes in the Law Relating to the Financial Soundness of Local Governments: Empirical evidence of Japanese prefectural data]," MPRA Paper 61223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Esther Ademmer & Ferdinand Dreher, 2016. "Constraining Political Budget Cycles: Media Strength and Fiscal Institutions in the Enlarged EU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 508-524, May.
  57. Masten, Igor & Grdović Gnip, Ana, 2016. "Stress testing the EU fiscal framework," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 276-293.
  58. Hirota, Haruaki & Yunoue, Hideo, 2017. "The effects of the new fiscal rule and creative accounting: Empirical evidence from Japanese municipalities," MPRA Paper 79812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2018. "Revenue- versus spending-based consolidation plans: the role of follow-up," Working Paper Series 2178, European Central Bank.
  60. F. Holm-Hadulla & S. Hauptmeier & P. Rother, 2012. "The impact of expenditure rules on budgetary discipline over the cycle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3287-3296, September.
  61. Maren Brede & Christian Henn, 2018. "Finland’s Public Sector Balance Sheet: A Novel Approach to Analysis of Public Finance," IMF Working Papers 2018/078, International Monetary Fund.
  62. Bernardino Benito & María-Dolores Guillamón & Francisco Bastida, 2015. "Budget Forecast Deviations in Municipal Governments: Determinants and Implications," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 25(1), pages 45-70, March.
  63. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Review and Estimates for the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 2948, CESifo.
  64. David Cronin & Niall McInerney, 2024. "Institutional Quality and Official Budgetary Forecast Performance in EU Member States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 80(2), pages 165-192.
  65. Roel Beetsma & Jacopo Cimadomo & Oana Furtuna & Massimo Giuliodori1, 2015. "The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 439-489.
  66. Goto, Tsuyoshi & Yamamoto, Genki, 2023. "Debt issuance incentives and creative accounting: Evidence from municipal mergers in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  67. Helge Berger & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Maurice Obstfeld, 2019. "Revisiting the Economic Case for Fiscal Union in the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 657-683, September.
  68. Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2010. "Fiscal sustainability and the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: do supranational forecasts rather than government forecasts make a difference?," GEMF Working Papers 2010-07, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  69. Marcell Göttert & Robert Lehmann, 2021. "Tax Revenue Forecast Errors: Wrong Predictions of the Tax Base or the Elasticity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9148, CESifo.
  70. Panagiotis Liargovas & Vasilis Pilichos, 2022. "Is EU Fiscal Governance Effective? A Case Study for the Period 1999–2019," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, July.
  71. Diagne, Youssoupha Sakrya, 2014. "La crédibilité budgétaire au Sénégal [Fiscal credibility in Senegal]," MPRA Paper 114166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  72. Wehner, Joachim, 2010. "Cabinet structure and fiscal policy outcomes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28648, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  73. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Ernst, Ekkehard & Merola, Rossana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2019. "The composition effects of tax-based consolidation on income inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 107-124.
  74. Philipp Weber & Laura A. Zell & Lars P. Feld & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2024. "Functionality of Fiscal Rules in a Low Interest Rate Environment – New Empirical Results for Swiss Cantons," CESifo Working Paper Series 11351, CESifo.
  75. De Jong, Jasper F.M. & Gilbert, Niels D., 2020. "Fiscal discipline in EMU? Testing the effectiveness of the Excessive Deficit Procedure," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  76. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Walschot, Mark & Wierts, Peter, 2013. "Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-138.
  77. Joseph David Barroso Vasconcelos de Deus & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2015. "Empirical evidence on fiscal forecasting in Eurozone countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(5), pages 838-860, October.
  78. Reischmann, Markus, 2016. "Creative accounting and electoral motives: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 243-257.
  79. repec:uii:journl:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:137-147 is not listed on IDEAS
  80. Debrun, Xavier & Gerard, Marc & Harris, Jason, 2016. "Fiscal Watchdogs and Sound Fiscal Policy: Is the Barking Loud Enough to Tame Politicians?," MPRA Paper 96683, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2019.
  81. Mancini, Anna Laura & Tommasino, Pietro, 2023. "Fiscal rules and the reliability of public investment plans: Evidence from local governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  82. Panagiotis Liargovas & Vasilis Pilichos & Anastasia Angelopoulou, 2021. "Fiscal governance and forecasting Bias: a case study of Greece during the economic crisis," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 75-95.
  83. Cronin, David & McInerney, Niall, 2023. "Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the European Semester and Fiscal Compact – An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  84. Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes & Giovanna Ciaffi & Santiago José Gahn, 2025. "Le grandi Opere Pubbliche: fiscal multipliers of public infrastructure in Italy (1870–1998)," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 42(1), pages 155-180, April.
  85. Casalin, Fabrizio & Cerniglia, Floriana & Dia, Enzo, 2023. "Stock-flow adjustments, public debt management and interest costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  86. Niels D. Gilbert & Jasper F.M. Jong, 2017. "Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth Pact," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-32, January.
  87. Miss Anke Weber, 2012. "Stock-Flow Adjustments and Fiscal Transparency: A Cross-Country Comparison," IMF Working Papers 2012/039, International Monetary Fund.
  88. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
  89. João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "Promised Fiscal Expansions and Politics: A European Union Assessment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 84-116, March.
  90. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2014. "Government Forecasts of Budget Balances Under Asymmetric Loss: International Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100317, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  91. Roel Beetsma & Benjamin Bluhm & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2011. "From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-080/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  92. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Fiscal planning and implementation : euro area analysis based on real time data," Research Discussion Papers 34/2012, Bank of Finland.
  93. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P., 2018. "(Un-)intended effects of fiscal rules," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-191.
  94. Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "Real time uncertainty in fiscal planning and debt accumulation in the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 43-59, January.
  95. Nada Azmy ElBerry & Stijn Goeminne, 2021. "Fiscal transparency, fiscal forecasting and budget credibility in developing countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 144-161, January.
  96. repec:uii:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:1:p:84-97 is not listed on IDEAS
  97. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Fiscal planning and implementation: euro area analysis based on real time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 34/2012, Bank of Finland.
  98. repec:dgr:rugsom:12010-eef is not listed on IDEAS
  99. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  100. De Jong, Jasper F.M. & Gilbert, Niels D., 2020. "Fiscal discipline in EMU? Testing the effectiveness of the Excessive Deficit Procedure," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  101. Jakob de Haan & Jeroen Hessel & Niels Gilbert, 2014. "Reforming the architecture of EMU: Ensuring stability in Europe," DNB Working Papers 446, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  102. Baldi, Guido, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Rules, Budget Deficits, and Forecasting Biases," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 185-194.
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