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Don’t blame the government!? An assessment of debt forecast errors with a view to the EU Economic Governance Review

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  • Bachleitner, Alena
  • Prammer, Doris

Abstract

In view of the increased importance of debt developments in the EU governance framework, this paper investigates the accuracy and the main economic causes of forecast errors in (government) debt projections. We find a positive average debt forecast error for European Union member states, which increases with the projection horizon. Underestimation of debt growth is particularly relevant for countries with high government debt. The main drivers of the debt forecast errors seem to be partly outside direct government control: Wrongly projected overall GDP developments and stock flow adjustments - a factor which has not been considered in the literature so far. Moreover, the high uncertainty in debt forecasts is also inherent in the European Commission’s benchmark forecasts: only their now-cast remains unbiased.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachleitner, Alena & Prammer, Doris, 2024. "Don’t blame the government!? An assessment of debt forecast errors with a view to the EU Economic Governance Review," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:82:y:2024:i:c:s0176268024000260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102524
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government debt; Debt forecast error; Forecast evaluation; Fiscal rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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