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An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach

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Cited by:

  1. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis," Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
  2. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
  3. Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
  4. Xiao, Jinzhi & Lence, Sergio H. & Hart, Chad E., 2015. "Do analysts forecast the ending stocks or the USDA forecasts?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205759, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2023. "Raiders of the lost high‐frequency forecasts: New data and evidence on the efficiency of the Fed's forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 88-104, January.
  6. Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015. "Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 157-164.
  7. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  8. Chen, Qiwei & Costantini, Mauro & Deschamps, Bruno, 2016. "How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 154-167.
  9. Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015. "What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
  10. Demetrescu, Matei & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: Factor augmentation and model selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 80-99.
  11. Tara M. Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2332-2342.
  12. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
  13. Silvija Vlah Jerić & Mihovil Anđelinović, 2019. "Evaluating Croatian stock index forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1325-1339, April.
  14. Berge, Travis J. & Chang, Andrew C. & Sinha, Nitish R., 2019. "Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1627-1635.
  15. Arai, Natsuki, 2014. "Using forecast evaluation to improve the accuracy of the Greenbook forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 12-19.
  16. Papastamos, Dimitrios & Matysiak, George & Stevenson, Simon, 2015. "Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-152.
  17. Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition," CAMA Working Papers 2014-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  18. Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xun, 2018. "How efficient are China's macroeconomic forecasts? Evidences from a new forecasting evaluation approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 506-513.
  19. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Evaluation of Global Accuracy of Romanian Inflation Rate Predictions Using Mahalanobis Distance," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 133-149, March.
  20. Ager, P. & Kappler, M. & Osterloh, S., 2009. "The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A further application and extension of the pooled approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 167-181.
  21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
  22. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_007 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2008. "Are they really rational? Assessing professional macro-economic forecasts from the G7-countries," Kiel Working Papers 1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  24. Binder, Carola Conces & Wetzel, Samantha, 2018. "The FOMC versus the staff, revisited: When do policymakers add value?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 72-75.
  25. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Can Macroeconomists Forecast Risk? Event-Based Evidence from the Euro-Area SPF," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 1-46, December.
  26. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos, 2013. "Can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 141-151.
  27. Jones, Adam T. & Ogden, Richard E., 2017. "A day late and a dollar short: The effect of policy uncertainty on fed forecast errors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 112-122.
  28. Croushore, Dean & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1583-1595.
  29. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  30. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
  32. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.
  33. Xiao, Jinzhi, 2015. "Essays on the forecasts of ending stocks," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005902, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  34. Strunz, Franziska & Gödl, Maximilian, 2023. "An Evaluation of Professional Forecasts for the German Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  35. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "Directional accuracy for inflation and unemployment rate predictions in Romania," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(2), pages 129-138, September.
  37. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
  38. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
  39. Kajal Lahiri, 2012. "Comment on "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds" by Andrew Patton and Allan Timmermann. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, No. 1, Vol. 30, 2012, pp.1-17," Discussion Papers 12-10, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  40. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  41. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
  42. Dimitrios Papastamos & George Matysiak & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  43. Engelke, Carola & Heinisch, Katja & Schult, Christoph, 2019. "How forecast accuracy depends on conditioning assumptions," IWH Discussion Papers 18/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  44. Lillian R. Gaeto & Sandeep Mazumder, 2019. "Measuring the Accuracy of Federal Reserve Forecasts," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(3), pages 960-984, January.
  45. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: A state dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
  46. Sheng, Xuguang (Simon), 2015. "Evaluating the economic forecasts of FOMC members," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 165-175.
  47. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  48. Kontogeorgos, Georgios & Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2019. "An analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projections," Working Paper Series 2291, European Central Bank.
  49. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Peter Tillmann, 2011. "Reputation and Forecast Revisions: Evidence from the FOMC," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201128, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  51. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman Stekler, 2010. "Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 2010-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  52. Davies, Antony, 2006. "A framework for decomposing shocks and measuring volatilities derived from multi-dimensional panel data of survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 373-393.
  53. Xiao, Jinzhi & Lence, Sergio H. & Hart, Chad, 2014. "Usda And Private Analysts' Forecasts Of Ending Stocks: How Good Are They?," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170642, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  54. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  55. Sergey V. Smirnov, 2014. "Predicting US Recessions: Does a Wishful Bias Exist?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 77/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  56. Vereda, Luciano & Savignon, João & Gouveia da Silva, Tarciso, 2021. "A new method to assess the degree of information rigidity using fixed-event forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1576-1589.
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