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Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. D F Percy & P A Scarf, 2008. "On the development of decision rules for bar quiz handicapping," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(10), pages 1406-1414, October.
  2. Smith, Michael A. & Paton, David & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2009. "Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 539-549, August.
  3. Johnnie Johnson & Alistair Bruce & Jiejun Yu, 2010. "The ordinal efficiency of betting markets: an exploded logit approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3703-3709.
  4. Ma, Tiejun & Tang, Leilei & McGroarty, Frank & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E. V, 2016. "Time is money: Costing the impact of duration misperception in market prices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(2), pages 397-410.
  5. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  6. Zhang, Linhan & Tang, Qingliang & Huang, Robin Hui, 2021. "Mind the Gap: Is Water Disclosure a Missing Component of Corporate Social Responsibility?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1).
  7. Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 1999. "Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: A Survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, January.
  8. Vaughan Williams, Leighton & Stekler, Herman O., 2010. "Sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 445-447, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
  9. Lessmann, Stefan & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2009. "Identifying winners of competitive events: A SVM-based classification model for horserace prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 569-577, July.
  10. Stefani Ray, 2011. "The Methodology of Officially Recognized International Sports Rating Systems," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, October.
  11. Green, Lawrence & Sung, Ming-Chien & Ma, Tiejun & Johnson, Johnnie E. V., 2019. "To what extent can new web-based technology improve forecasts? Assessing the economic value of information derived from Virtual Globes and its rate of diffusion in a financial market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 226-239.
  12. Jianbo Li & Minggao Gu & Tao Hu, 2012. "General partially linear varying-coefficient transformation models for ranking data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 1475-1488, January.
  13. Michael R. Metel, 2018. "Kelly Betting on Horse Races with Uncertainty in Probability Estimates," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 47-52, March.
  14. Alistair C. Bruce & Johnnie E. V. Johnson & John D. Peirson & Jiejun Yu, 2009. "An Examination of the Determinants of Biased Behaviour in a Market for State Contingent Claims," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 282-303, April.
  15. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2015. "Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues," MPRA Paper 66414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2019. "Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer leagues," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 239-246.
  17. Lessmann, Stefan & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2010. "Alternative methods of predicting competitive events: An application in horserace betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 518-536, July.
  18. S Lessmann & M-C Sung & J E V Johnson, 2011. "Towards a methodology for measuring the true degree of efficiency in a speculative market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(12), pages 2120-2132, December.
  19. Lo Victor S & Bacon-Shone John, 2008. "Probability and Statistical Models for Racing," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
  20. M. Sung & J. E. V. Johnson, 2010. "Revealing Weak‐Form Inefficiency in a Market for State Contingent Claims: The Importance of Market Ecology, Modelling Procedures and Investment Strategies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(305), pages 128-147, January.
  21. David Edelman, 2007. "Adapting support vector machine methods for horserace odds prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 325-336, April.
  22. Martin S. Fridson, 1993. "I'Ve Got The Horse Right Here: Sports Betting And Market Efficiency," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 6(2), pages 88-90, June.
  23. Ziemba, William, 2020. "Parimutuel betting markets: racetracks and lotteries revisited," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118873, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  24. Kenneth L. Rhoda & Gerard T. Olson & Jack M. Rappaport, 1999. "Risk Preferences And Information Flows In Racetrack Betting Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 265-285, September.
  25. McGee, Richard J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V., 2017. "Everyone’s a winner: The market impact of technologically advantaged agents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 95-98.
  26. Lessmann, Stefan & Sung, Ming-Chien & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Ma, Tiejun, 2012. "A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 163-174.
  27. del Corral, Julio & Prieto-Rodríguez, Juan, 2010. "Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 551-563, July.
  28. Dave Cliff, 2021. "BBE: Simulating the Microstructural Dynamics of an In-Play Betting Exchange via Agent-Based Modelling," Papers 2105.08310, arXiv.org.
  29. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
  30. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
  31. Vaughan Williams Leighton & Liu Chunping & Dixon Lerato & Gerrard Hannah, 2021. "How well do Elo-based ratings predict professional tennis matches?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 91-105, June.
  32. Strumbelj, E. & Sikonja, M. Robnik, 2010. "Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 482-488, July.
  33. Erhan Bayraktar & Alexander Munk, 2016. "High-Roller Impact: A Large Generalized Game Model of Parimutuel Wagering," Papers 1605.03653, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
  34. Rosenbloom, E. S., 2003. "A better probability model for the racetrack using Beyer speed numbers," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 339-348, October.
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