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Geopolitical risk and excess stock returns predictability: New evidence from a century of data

Citations

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  1. David Neto, 2025. "Is uncertainty in the European stock market resilient to geopolitical risk? A non-homogeneous regime-switching analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 651-666, November.
  2. Yaojie Zhang & Mengxi He & Zhikai Zhang, 2024. "Forecasting stock returns with industry volatility concentration," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2705-2730, November.
  3. Shaobin, Guo & Ahmad, Khalil & Khan, Naqib Ullah, 2024. "Natural resources, geopolitical conflicts, and digital trade: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  4. López Prol, Javier, 2025. "Taiwan’s stock market resilience to increasing geopolitical risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  5. Chen, Chuanglian & Ye, Cheng & Wang, Haonan & Yao, Shujie, 2025. "Policy intervention and stock market stability risks: Evidence from carbon emission trading policy on energy firms in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  6. Wahyono, Budi & Rapih, Subroto & Boungou, Whelsy, 2023. "Unleashing the wordsmith: Analysing the stock market reactions to the launch of ChatGPT in the US Education sector," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
  7. Neto, David, 2025. "Buy when there’s blood in the streets: How geopolitical adverse events can push defense stock returns to the extreme," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB).
  8. Ana Sofia Monteiro & Helder Sebastião & Nuno Silva, 2025. "Prediction and Allocation of Stocks, Bonds, and REITs in the US Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(3), pages 1191-1230, March.
  9. Wang, Daoping & Li, Kangle & Shen, Xinyan, 2025. "Fear of war: Geopolitical risks and the potential impact on local government bonds, stock market and FDI in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
  10. Neto, David, 2025. "Does geopolitical distress tip the European financial stock markets into a great uncertainty regime?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3).
  11. Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Goldstein, Michael A. & Malhotra, Nidhi & Yadav, Miklesh Prasad, 2024. "Middle East conflict and energy companies: The effect of air and drone strikes on global energy stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
  12. Chiang, Thomas C., 2025. "The effect of climate policy uncertainty and induced risks on US aggregate and sectoral stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  13. Neto, David, 2025. "Wall Street sneezes and global finance catches a cold: How does geopolitical risk contribute? A tale of tail," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  14. Fei Lu & Feng Ma & Elie Bouri, 2024. "Stock market volatility predictability: new evidence from energy consumption," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
  15. Roy, Tonoy & Bhuiyan, Rubaiyat Ahsan & Ahmed, Sarwar Uddin & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2024. "Geopolitical conflict and firm bankruptcy risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  16. Wang, Lu & Ruan, Hang & Hong, Yanran & Luo, Keyu, 2023. "Detecting the hidden asymmetric relationship between crude oil and the US dollar: A novel neural Granger causality method," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  17. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Jiaxin & He, Mengxi & Li, Shaofang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: A global perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  18. Babaei, Hamid & Hübner, Georges & Muller, Aline, 2023. "The effects of uncertainty on the dynamics of stock market interdependence: Evidence from the time-varying cointegration of the G7 stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  19. Xiong, Mengxu & Lu, Jiajia & Kong, Dongmin, 2024. "Bilateral conflicts and corporate investment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
  20. Marobhe, Mutaju Isaack & Kansheba, Jonathan Mukiza & Munim, Ziaul Haque, 2025. "Geopolitical uncertainty and shipping stock returns: An event study of the Israel-Hamas conflict," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  21. Sheenan, Lisa, 2023. "Green bonds, conventional bonds and geopolitical risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
  22. Haque, Tariq & Pham, Thu Phuong & Yang, Jiaxin, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, financial constraints, and tax avoidance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  23. Gao, Wang & Wei, Jiajia & Zhang, Hongwei & Zhang, Haizhen, 2024. "The higher-order moments connectedness between rare earth and clean energy markets and the role of geopolitical risk:New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
  24. Hossain, Ashrafee T. & Masum, Abdullah-Al & Saadi, Samir, 2024. "The impact of geopolitical risks on foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the Russia–Ukraine war," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  25. Xiong, Mengxu & Kong, Dongmin, 2026. "Geopolitical risks and firm export product quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
  26. Hao, Xinlei & Ma, Yong & Pan, Dongtao, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the predictability of spillovers between exchange, commodity and stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  27. Schlosky, Minh Tam Tammy & Karadas, Serkan & Stivers, Adam, 2024. "Forecasting U.S. Stock Returns Conditional on Geopolitical Risk and Business Cycles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
  28. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
  29. Carney, Richard W. & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Wang, He (Helen), 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the cost of capital in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  30. Lai, Fujun & Xiong, Deping & Zhu, Sha & Li, Yunzhong & Tan, Yanzhi, 2023. "Will geopolitical risks only inhibit corporate investment? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  31. Kotsompolis, Giorgos & Prelorentzos, Arsenios-Georgios N. & Xidonas, Panos & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2025. "European financial markets, energy returns and geopolitical risk: A frequency domain spectral analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  32. Zhang, Yaojie & Zhang, Yuxuan & Ren, Xinrui & Jin, Meichen, 2024. "Geopolitical risk exposure and stock returns: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  33. Umaid A. Sheikh & Mosab I. Tabash & David Roubaud & Emilios Galariotis & Khaled Guesmi, 2026. "Asymmetric Good and Bad Volatility Transmission Mechanism: Moderating Role of Global Uncertainties," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 584-619, January.
  34. Jana, Rabin K. & Ghosh, Indranil, 2023. "Time-varying relationship between geopolitical uncertainty and agricultural investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  35. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  36. Hua, Siying & Jiang, Yuanying & Chen, Binxia, 2026. "Decoding multidimensional risk spillovers in “metal-energy-carbon” System: Novel insights from higher-order moments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PD).
  37. Saâdaoui, Foued & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the Saudi stock market: Evidence from a new wavelet packet multiresolution cross-causality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  38. Zhou, Zhiping & Wang, Kai, 2025. "War discourse predicts stock market volatility: A century of evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  39. Yu, Fanchao, 2023. "Macroeconomic information, global economic policy uncertainty and gold futures return predictability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
  40. Gao, Bin & Zhang, Jinlong & Xie, Jun & Zhang, Wenjie, 2023. "The impact of carbon risk on the pricing efficiency of the capital market: Evidence from a natural experiment in china," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  41. Fatma Kızılkaya & Oktay Kızılkaya & Faruk Mike, 2026. "Does geopolitical risk escalate environmental degradation in Turkey? Evidence from a Fourier approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 7085-7106, March.
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