Geopolitical risk and excess stock returns predictability: New evidence from a century of data

Citations

Cited by:

1. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Jiaxin & He, Mengxi & Li, Shaofang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: A global perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
2. Babaei, Hamid & Hübner, Georges & Muller, Aline, 2023. "The effects of uncertainty on the dynamics of stock market interdependence: Evidence from the time-varying cointegration of the G7 stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
3. Xiong, Mengxu & Lu, Jiajia & Kong, Dongmin, 2024. "Bilateral conflicts and corporate investment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
4. Marobhe, Mutaju Isaack & Kansheba, Jonathan Mukiza & Munim, Ziaul Haque, 2025. "Geopolitical uncertainty and shipping stock returns: An event study of the Israel-Hamas conflict," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
5. Yaojie Zhang & Mengxi He & Zhikai Zhang, 2024. "Forecasting stock returns with industry volatility concentration," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2705-2730, November.
6. Sheenan, Lisa, 2023. "Green bonds, conventional bonds and geopolitical risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
   • Sheenan, Lisa, 2023. "Green Bonds, Conventional Bonds and Geopolitical Risk," QBS Working Paper Series 2023/05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
7. Haque, Tariq & Pham, Thu Phuong & Yang, Jiaxin, 2023. "Geopolitical risk, financial constraints, and tax avoidance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
8. Gao, Wang & Wei, Jiajia & Zhang, Hongwei & Zhang, Haizhen, 2024. "The higher-order moments connectedness between rare earth and clean energy markets and the role of geopolitical risk:New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
9. Hossain, Ashrafee T. & Masum, Abdullah-Al & Saadi, Samir, 2024. "The impact of geopolitical risks on foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the Russia–Ukraine war," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
10. Shaobin, Guo & Ahmad, Khalil & Khan, Naqib Ullah, 2024. "Natural resources, geopolitical conflicts, and digital trade: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
11. Hao, Xinlei & Ma, Yong & Pan, Dongtao, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the predictability of spillovers between exchange, commodity and stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
12. Chen, Chuanglian & Ye, Cheng & Wang, Haonan & Yao, Shujie, 2025. "Policy intervention and stock market stability risks: Evidence from carbon emission trading policy on energy firms in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
13. Schlosky, Minh Tam Tammy & Karadas, Serkan & Stivers, Adam, 2024. "Forecasting U.S. Stock Returns Conditional on Geopolitical Risk and Business Cycles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
14. Wahyono, Budi & Rapih, Subroto & Boungou, Whelsy, 2023. "Unleashing the wordsmith: Analysing the stock market reactions to the launch of ChatGPT in the US Education sector," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
15. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
16. Carney, Richard W. & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Wang, He (Helen), 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the cost of capital in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
17. Ana Sofia Monteiro & Helder Sebastião & Nuno Silva, 2025. "Prediction and Allocation of Stocks, Bonds, and REITs in the US Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(3), pages 1191-1230, March.
18. Lai, Fujun & Xiong, Deping & Zhu, Sha & Li, Yunzhong & Tan, Yanzhi, 2023. "Will geopolitical risks only inhibit corporate investment? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
19. Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Goldstein, Michael A. & Malhotra, Nidhi & Yadav, Miklesh Prasad, 2024. "Middle East conflict and energy companies: The effect of air and drone strikes on global energy stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
20. Chiang, Thomas C., 2025. "The effect of climate policy uncertainty and induced risks on US aggregate and sectoral stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
21. Zhang, Yaojie & Zhang, Yuxuan & Ren, Xinrui & Jin, Meichen, 2024. "Geopolitical risk exposure and stock returns: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
22. Jana, Rabin K. & Ghosh, Indranil, 2023. "Time-varying relationship between geopolitical uncertainty and agricultural investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
23. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
24. Neto, David, 2025. "Wall Street sneezes and global finance catches a cold: How does geopolitical risk contribute? A tale of tail," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
25. Fei Lu & Feng Ma & Elie Bouri, 2024. "Stock market volatility predictability: new evidence from energy consumption," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
26. Saâdaoui, Foued & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the Saudi stock market: Evidence from a new wavelet packet multiresolution cross-causality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
27. Roy, Tonoy & Bhuiyan, Rubaiyat Ahsan & Ahmed, Sarwar Uddin & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2024. "Geopolitical conflict and firm bankruptcy risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
28. Wang, Lu & Ruan, Hang & Hong, Yanran & Luo, Keyu, 2023. "Detecting the hidden asymmetric relationship between crude oil and the US dollar: A novel neural Granger causality method," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
29. Yu, Fanchao, 2023. "Macroeconomic information, global economic policy uncertainty and gold futures return predictability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
30. Gao, Bin & Zhang, Jinlong & Xie, Jun & Zhang, Wenjie, 2023. "The impact of carbon risk on the pricing efficiency of the capital market: Evidence from a natural experiment in china," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).