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Macroeconomic information, global economic policy uncertainty and gold futures return predictability

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  • Yu, Fanchao

Abstract

This study investigates the impacts of the macroeconomic variables and global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) on gold futures return predictability using a simple regression. We find that few macroeconomic variables (e.g., inflation) can significantly have impact on gold futures excess returns. Out-of-sample results indicate that inflation can increase the forecast accuracy compared to other strategies, even during the COVID-19, two- and three-month ahead forecasts. However, the GEPU index is useless to predict the gold futures returns in various conditions and formulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Fanchao, 2023. "Macroeconomic information, global economic policy uncertainty and gold futures return predictability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323001629
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103789
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    2. Simran & Anil Kumar Sharma, 2025. "Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Forecasting Gold Futures Volatility: Evidence From India," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(8), pages 1006-1022, August.

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