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Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: lessons from the financial crisis

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Sebastian Doerr & Leonardo Gambacorta & José María Serena Garralda, 2021. "Big data and machine learning in central banking," BIS Working Papers 930, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  3. Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
  5. Richard B. Freeman, 2022. "Planning for the “Expected Unexpected”: Work and Retirement in the U.S. After the COVID-19 Pandemic Shock," NBER Working Papers 29653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Teng, Bin & Wang, Sicong & Shi, Yufeng & Sun, Yunchuan & Wang, Wei & Hu, Wentao & Shi, Chaojun, 2022. "Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  7. Paul Ho, 2023. "Forecasting in the absence of precedent," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 1033-1058, July.
  8. Rybacki, Jakub & Gniazdowski, Michał, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Poland: Lessons From the COVID-19 Outbreak," MPRA Paper 107682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Ivan Stankevich, 2025. "Nowcasting and short-term forecasting of G-20 countries GDP with endogenous regime-switching MIDAS models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 1383-1410, September.
  10. Suckert, Lisa, 2021. "Von der Pandemie zu einer Neuordnung der Zeit? Zeitsoziologische Perspektiven auf das Verhältnis von Zeitlichkeit, Wirtschaft und Staat," MPIfG Discussion Paper 21/7, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
  11. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Goebel & Karin Klieber, 2024. "Dual Interpretation of Machine Learning Forecasts," Papers 2412.13076, arXiv.org.
  12. Lorenzo Fratoni & Susanna Levantesi & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Sustainability and Social Adequacy of the Italian NDC Pension System under the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-23, December.
  13. Serena Ng, 2021. "Modeling Macroeconomic Variations after Covid-19," NBER Working Papers 29060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Arbolino, R. & Boffardi, R. & De Simone, L. & Di Caro, P., 2025. "Geopolitical risks and the effectiveness of the EU funds: Heterogeneity in country impact," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 199-212.
  15. Yose Rizal Damuri & Prabaning Tyas & Haryo Aswicahyono & Lionel Priyadi & Stella Kusumawardhani & Ega Kurnia Yazid, 2021. "Tracking the Ups and Downs in Indonesia’s Economic Activity During COVID-19 Using Mobility Index: Evidence from Provinces in Java and Bali," Working Papers DP-2021-18, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  16. De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo, 2021. "Macrofinancial information on the post-COVID-19 economic recovery: Will it be V, U or L-shaped?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
  17. Knut Are Aastveit & Tuva Marie Fastbø & Eleonora Granziera & Kenneth Sæterhagen Paulsen & Kjersti Næss Torstensen, 2024. "Nowcasting Norwegian household consumption with debit card transaction data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1220-1244, November.
  18. Jakub Rybacki & Michał Gniazdowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(1), pages 45-64.
  19. Orkideh Gharehgozli & Sunhyung Lee, 2022. "Money Supply and Inflation after COVID-19," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, April.
  20. James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2023. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, November.
  21. Arbolino, Roberta & Caro, Paolo Di, 2021. "Can the EU funds promote regional resilience at time of Covid-19? Insights from the Great Recession11We thank the Editors and the four anonymous referees for helpful comments. We also thank Emanuele Ciani, Alex Cooper, Ugo Fratesi and the participant," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 109-126.
  22. İsmail Cakmak & Selcen Öztürk, . "Analysing Impact of Economic Crises on Sector Profits with a New Approach," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 0.
  23. Michael Zhemkov, 2021. "Nowcasting Russian GDP using forecast combination approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 10-24.
  24. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "Assessing the economic effects of lockdowns in Italy: a computational Input-Output approach," LEM Papers Series 2021/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  25. Bas Scheer, 2022. "Addressing Unemployment Rate Forecast Errors in Relation to the Business Cycle," CPB Discussion Paper 434, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  26. Monica Laura Zlati & Costinela Fortea & Alina Meca & Valentin Marian Antohi, 2024. "Approaches to Prognosing the European Economic Crisis Through a New Economic–Financial Risk Sensitivity Model," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-30, December.
  27. Galdi, Giulio & Casarin, Roberto & Ferrari, Davide & Fezzi, Carlo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  28. Luca Attolico, 2025. "Explainable Machine Learning for Macroeconomic and Financial Nowcasting: A Decision-Grade Framework for Business and Policy," Papers 2512.00399, arXiv.org.
  29. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2024. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(4), pages 275-320, October.
  30. Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stephane Surprenant, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 24-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised May 2025.
  31. Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Adam Kader Touré, 2022. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the COVID‐19 pandemic: Measure and impacts on the Canadian economy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 379-405, February.
  32. Daniel Hopp, 2022. "Performance of long short-term memory artificial neural networks in nowcasting during the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2203.11872, arXiv.org.
  33. Zhang, Qin & Ni, He & Xu, Hao, 2023. "Nowcasting Chinese GDP in a data-rich environment: Lessons from machine learning algorithms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  34. Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2025. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Impacts: Insights for Canadian Policy," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 51(3), pages 344-362, September.
  35. İsmail Cakmak & Selcen Öztürk, 2023. "Analysing Impact of Economic Crises on Sector Profits with a New Approach," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(3), pages 225-245.
  36. Shafiullah Qureshi & Ba Chu & Fanny S. Demers, 2021. "Forecasting Canadian GDP Growth with Machine Learning," Carleton Economic Papers 21-05, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  37. John O’Trakoun, 2022. "Business forecasting during the pandemic," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(3), pages 95-110, July.
  38. Yannis Psycharis & Anastasia Panori & Dimitrios Athanasopoulos, 2022. "Public Investment and Regional Resilience: Empirical Evidence from the Greek Regions," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 113(1), pages 57-79, February.
  39. Archanskaia, Elizaveta & Canton, Erik & Hobza, Alexandr & Nikolov, Plamen & Simons, Wouter, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of COVID-19: A novel approach to quantifying financial distress across industries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  40. Liu, Ying & Wen, Long & Liu, Han & Song, Haiyan, 2024. "Predicting tourism recovery from COVID-19: A time-varying perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  41. Cassetti, Gabriele & Boitier, Baptiste & Elia, Alessia & Le Mouël, Pierre & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Zagamé, Paul & Nikas, Alexandros & Koasidis, Konstantinos & Doukas, Haris & Chiodi, Alessandro, 2023. "The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
  42. La Rocca, Maurizio & Fasano, Francesco & Staglianò, Raffaele & La Rocca, Elvira Tiziana & Deloof, Marc, 2025. "The financial life cycle of European SMEs before, during and after crisis periods. What is the role of a country's financial system?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
  43. Zhao, Xinyue & Chen, Heng & Zheng, Qiwei & Liu, Jun & Pan, Peiyuan & Xu, Gang & Zhao, Qinxin & Jiang, Xue, 2023. "Thermo-economic analysis of a novel hydrogen production system using medical waste and biogas with zero carbon emission," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
  44. Aminullah, Erman, 2024. "Forecasting of technology innovation and economic growth in Indonesia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
  45. Antonio Oliva & Francesco Gracceva & Daniele Lerede & Matteo Nicoli & Laura Savoldi, 2021. "Projection of Post-Pandemic Italian Industrial Production through Vector AutoRegressive Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-18, September.
  46. Wang, Yuting & Chen, Heng & Qiao, Shichao & Pan, Peiyuan & Xu, Gang & Dong, Yuehong & Jiang, Xue, 2023. "A novel methanol-electricity cogeneration system based on the integration of water electrolysis and plasma waste gasification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
  47. Fabrizio Iacone & Luca Rossini & Andrea Viselli, 2026. "Comparing predictive ability in the presence of instability over a very short time," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 29(1), pages 143-166.
  48. Nugroho, Anggoro Dimas Pambudi, 2022. "Strategi Ekonomi Bisnis dalam Upaya Menghadapi Ancaman Resesi 2023," OSF Preprints j3dpm, Center for Open Science.
  49. Fezzi, Carlo & Fanghella, Valeria, 2021. "Tracking GDP in real-time using electricity market data: Insights from the first wave of COVID-19 across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  50. Edward C. H. Tang, 2024. "Examining the Impacts of the Pandemic on the Housing Bubble in Hong Kong," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 28(1), pages 27-46, March.
  51. Lu, Fei & Zeng, Qing & Bouri, Elie & Tao, Ying, 2024. "Forecasting US GDP growth rates in a rich environment of macroeconomic data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  52. Serena Ng & Susannah Scanlan, 2024. "Constructing high frequency economic indicators by imputation," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 27(1), pages 1-30.
  53. repec:osf:osfxxx:j3dpm_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Nadiia Shapovalenko, 2021. "A BVAR Model for Forecasting Ukrainian Inflation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
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