IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/5319.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International spillovers and feedback: Modelling in a disequilibrium framework

Author

Listed:
  • Winker, Peter
  • Beck, Martin

Abstract

German unifikation hit the West German economy in a prosperous and appeared as a huge demand shock at least for the first few quarters. This combination resulted in a major increase of imports from the main trading partners of West Germany, which may have helped to cushion recessionary trends within these countries. In this paper the modelling of international trade in a disequilibrium framework and the consequences of German unification on trade flows are in the centre of interest. For this purpose, a macroeconomic disequilibrium model for the German economy is extended by submodels for bilateral trade flows vis a vis major trading partners. These submodels treat the trade flows as well as foreign and domestic production and capacity utilization as edogenous in a vector error correction framework. Consequently, the model allows for spillovers, like those resulting from the demand shock of German unification, to effect not only German trade flows, but also real variables in other countries leading to a feedback on Germany. The paper provides a short overview over the basic model. The modelling approach and estimation results for the trade submodels are presented in some detail and simmulation results for the feedback effects are also included.

Suggested Citation

  • Winker, Peter & Beck, Martin, 2000. "International spillovers and feedback: Modelling in a disequilibrium framework," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-36, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5319
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24382/1/dp0036.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    2. Winker, Peter & Smolny, Werner & Radowski, Daniel, 1999. "Modeling German unification in a disequilibrium framework," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-61, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconometric modelling; international spillovers; trade feedback; VEC modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.