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Business Cycles in EU Member States

  • Buscher, Herbert S.
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    The paper investigates the business cycle relationships between the EU-15, the EU-11, as well as the EU-core countries for the period 1971 to 1997. Emphasis is put on the question whether there is a synchronization in the national business cycles or not. Using One-way- and Twoway-Anova techniques the results show that country-specific shocks are important to the smaller countries such as Luxembourg, Ireland, Portugal, and Finland. But for most of the EMU-members common shocks are much more important than country-specific shocks. In addition there is no indication of significant differences in the national growth rates, i.e. the European countries do not move along diverging growth paths. Nevertheless, departures over the business cycles are possible because persistence in output growth differs across countries.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24302/1/dp1699.pdf
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    Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 99-16.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5233
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    1. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Luca Antonio Ricci, 1997. "A Model of An Optimum Currency Area," IMF Working Papers 97/76, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Puhani, Patrick A., 1999. "Labour mobility - an adjustment mechanism in Euroland? Empirical evidence for Western Germany, France and Italy," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-47, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    4. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Operationalizing the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. De Grauwe, Paul & Vanhaverbeke, Wim, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Economics Working Papers 90-132, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Stirböck, Claudia & Heinemann, Friedrich, 1999. "Capital Mobility within EMU," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. C Bean, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union," CEP Discussion Papers dp0086, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Tamim Bayoumi & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment: Some New Empirical Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 36-58, March.
    11. Sergio Nardis & Alessandro Goglio & Marco Malgarini, 1996. "Regional specialization and shocks in Europe: Some evidence from regional data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 197-214, September.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 1998. "Asymmetric shocks and EMU: Is there a need for a stability fund?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 274-288, November.
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