Learning and self-confidence in contests
[Lernen und Selbstvertrauen in Wettkämpfen]
The paper studies a repeated contest when contestants are uncertain about their true abilities. A favourable belief about one’s own ability (confidence) stimulates effort and increases the likelihood of success. Success, in turn, reinforces favourable beliefs. We consider a specific example in which this reinforcement mechanism implies that, with positive probability, players fail to learn their true abilities, and one player may eventually win the contest forever. As a consequence, persistent inequality arises, and the worse player may eventually prevail. Furthermore, confidence is self-serving in that it increases a player’s utility and the likelihood to be the long-run winner.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 (0)30 25491-402
Fax: +49 (0)30 25491-400
Web page: http://www.wzb.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Meza, David & Southey, Clive, 1996.
"The Borrower's Curse: Optimism, Finance and Entrepreneurship,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 375-86, March.
- De Meza, D. & Southey, C., 1995. "The Borrower's Curse: Optimism, Finance and Enterpreneurship," Discussion Papers 9502, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
- Hans K. Hvide, 2002.
"Tournament Rewards and Risk Taking,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(4), pages 877-898, October.
- Hvide, H.K., 1999. "Tournament Rewards and Risk Taking," Papers 32-99, Tel Aviv.
- Hans K. Hvide, 2000. "Tournament Rewards and Risk Taking," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0163, Econometric Society.
- Van den Steen, Eric, 2002.
"Skill or Luck? Biases of Rational Agents,"
4255-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Martin W. Cripps & Godfrey Keller & Sven Rady, 2002. "Strategic Experimentation: The Case of Poisson Bandits," CESifo Working Paper Series 737, CESifo Group Munich.
- Manove, M. & Padilla, A.J., 1997.
"Banking (Conservatively) with Optimists,"
9718, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Manove, M., 1995. "Entrepreneurs, Optimism, and the Competitive Edge," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 296.95, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- William A. Darity & Arthur H. Goldsmith, 1996. "Social Psychology, Unemployment and Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 121-140, Winter.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbmpg:spii200310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.