Wars, presidents and popularity: The political cost(s) of war re-examined
Extensive research demonstrates that war casualties depress incumbent popularity. The present study argues that analyses of the political costs of warfare should also account for the financial toll of wars since a) financial costs of wars are substantial, b) these costs are publicly observed and understood and c) fiscal policy affects incumbents' approval ratings. Empirical evidence based on US data for the 1948-2008 period supports this theoretical claim: pecuniary costs of warfare either directly affect presidential popularity (e.g., in the Korean War) or their inclusion affects the predicted political cost of war casualties (e.g., in the Korean and Iraq/Afghanistan Wars). Interestingly, the adverse effect of war-spending is strongest under favourable economic conditions (i.e. low unemployment).
|Date of creation:||2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Reichpietschufer 50, 10785 Berlin, Germany|
Phone: ++49 - 30 - 25491 - 0
Fax: ++49 - 30 - 25491 - 684
Web page: http://www.wzb.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schwert, G William, 2002.
"Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
- James W. Hardin, 2002. "The robust variance estimator for two-stage models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(3), pages 253-266, August.
- Colaresi, Michael, 2007. "The Benefit of the Doubt: Testing an Informational Theory of the Rally Effect," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(01), pages 99-143, January.
- Fox, Gerald & Phillips, Earl N., 2003. "Interrelationship between presidential approval, presidential votes and macroeconomic performance, 1948-2000," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 411-424, September.
- Benny Geys & Jan Vermeir, 2008.
"Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence?,"
Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 301-317, June.
- Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2007.
"Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence
[Besteuerung und Popularität von Politikern: Gibt es unterscheidbare Wirkungen aufgrund der Steuerl," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2007-09, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
- Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2007. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence
- Braumoeller, Bear F., 2004. "Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(04), pages 807-820, October.
- Cusack, Thomas R., 1999. "The Shaping of Popular Satisfaction with Government and Regime Performance in Germany," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 641-672, September.
- Sam Peltzman, 1992. "Voters as Fiscal Conservatives," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 327-361.
- Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002.
"Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
- Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1985. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 370-79, October.
- Arne Risa Hole, 2006. "Calculating Murphy-Topel variance estimates in Stata: A simplified procedure," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(4), pages 521-529, December.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbfff:spii200911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.