IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc15/112871.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measurement Error in Subjective Expectations and the Empirical Content of Economic Models

Author

Listed:
  • von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin
  • Drerup, Tilman
  • Enke, Benjamin

Abstract

While stock market expectations are among the most important primitives of portfolio choice models, their measurement has proved challenging for some respondents. We argue that the magnitude of measurement error in subjective expectations can be used as an indicator of the degree to which economic models of portfolio choice provide an ade- quate representation of individual decision processes. In order to explore this conjecture empirically, we estimate a semiparametric double index model on a dataset specifically collected for this purpose. Stock market participation reacts strongly to changes in model parameters for respondents at the lower end of the measurement error distribution; these effects are much less pronounced for individuals at the upper end. Our findings indicate that measurement error in subjective expectations provides useful information to uncover heterogeneity in choice behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin & Drerup, Tilman & Enke, Benjamin, 2015. "Measurement Error in Subjective Expectations and the Empirical Content of Economic Models," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112871, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:112871
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/112871/1/VfS_2015_pid_256.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Syngjoo Choi & Shachar Kariv & Wieland M?ller & Dan Silverman, 2014. "Who Is (More) Rational?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1518-1550, June.
    2. Michael Hurd & Maarten Van Rooij & Joachim Winter, 2011. "Stock market expectations of Dutch households," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 416-436, April.
    3. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016064.
    4. Rob Alessie & Stefan Hochguertel & Arthur van Soest, 2004. "Ownership of Stocks and Mutual Funds: A Panel Data Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 783-796, August.
    5. Hoderlein, Stefan & Winter, Joachim, 2010. "Structural measurement errors in nonseparable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 432-440, August.
    6. Binswanger, Johannes & Salm, Martin, 2013. "Does Everyone Use Probabilities? Intuitive and Rational Decisions about Stockholding," IZA Discussion Papers 7265, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Tanjim Hossain & Ryo Okui, 2013. "The Binarized Scoring Rule," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(3), pages 984-1001.
    8. Simon Gächter & Elke Renner, 2010. "The effects of (incentivized) belief elicitation in public goods experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 13(3), pages 364-377, September.
    9. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107638105.
    10. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Arthur Van Soest, 2014. "Rounding, Focal Point Answers And Nonresponse To Subjective Probability Questions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 567-585, June.
    11. Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Arthur van Soest & Erik Wengstrom, 2011. "Heterogeneity in Risky Choice Behavior in a Broad Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 664-694, April.
    12. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "Eliciting Subjective Expectations in Internet Surveys," Working Papers 589, RAND Corporation.
    13. Susanne M. Schennach, 2012. "Measurement error in nonlinear models - a review," CeMMAP working papers CWP41/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Roger Klein & Francis Vella, 2009. "A semiparametric model for binary response and continuous outcomes under index heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 735-762.
    15. Maurer, Jürgen, 2009. "Who has a clue to preventing the flu? Unravelling supply and demand effects on the take-up of influenza vaccinations," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 704-717, May.
    16. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2012. "Stock Price Expectations and Stock Trading," NBER Working Papers 17973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Charles Bellemare & Luc Bissonnette & Sabine Kröger, 2011. "Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations Using Probability Questions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 125-131, April.
    18. Klein, Roger W & Spady, Richard H, 1993. "An Efficient Semiparametric Estimator for Binary Response Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 387-421, March.
    19. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Katherine G. Carman, 2012. "Measuring Risk Perceptions," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 32(2), pages 232-236, March.
    20. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016057.
    21. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107674165.
    22. Haliassos, Michael & Bertaut, Carol C, 1995. "Why Do So Few Hold Stocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1110-1129, September.
    23. Wang, Stephanie W., 2011. "Incentive effects: The case of belief elicitation from individuals in groups," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 30-33, April.
    24. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107627314.
    25. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107016040.
    26. John Rust, 2014. "The Limits of Inference with Theory: A Review of Wolpin (2013)," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 820-850, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gong, Yifan & Stinebrickner, Ralph & Stinebrickner, Todd, 2022. "Marriage, children, and labor supply: Beliefs and outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 148-164.
    2. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Fredj Jawadi & Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou & Wael Louhichi, 2018. "Measurement errors in stock markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 287-306, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Drerup, Tilman & Enke, Benjamin & von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin, 2017. "The precision of subjective data and the explanatory power of economic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 378-389.
    2. Stefan Hoderlein & Bettina Siflinger & Joachim Winter, 2015. "Identification of structural models in the presence of measurement error due to rounding in survey responses," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 869, Boston College Department of Economics.
    3. Christoph Breunig & Steffen Huck & Tobias Schmidt & Georg Weizsäcker, 2021. "The Standard Portfolio Choice Problem in Germany," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2413-2446.
    4. Han Bleichrodt & Christophe Courbage & Béatrice Rey, 2019. "The value of a statistical life under changes in ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Francis J. DiTraglia & Camilo García-Jimeno, 2017. "Mis-classified, Binary, Endogenous Regressors: Identification and Inference," NBER Working Papers 23814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Giovanni Compiani & Yuichi Kitamura, 2016. "Using mixtures in econometric models: a brief review and some new results," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 95-127, October.
    7. Pedro Carneiro & Michael Lokshin & Nithin Umapathi, 2017. "Average and Marginal Returns to Upper Secondary Schooling in Indonesia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 16-36, January.
    8. Karun Adusumilli & Taisuke Otsu, 2015. "Nonparametric instrumental regression with errors in variables," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2015/585, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    9. Schennach, Susanne M., 2019. "Convolution without independence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 308-318.
    10. Takahide Yanagi, 2019. "Inference on local average treatment effects for misclassified treatment," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 938-960, September.
    11. Battistin, Erich & De Nadai, Michele & Krishnan, Nandini, 2020. "The Insights and Illusions of Consumption Measurements," IZA Discussion Papers 13222, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Olivier L'Haridon & Craig S. Webb & Horst Zank, 2021. "An Effective and Simple Tool for Measuring Loss Aversion," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2107, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. José M.R. Murteira, 2018. "Copula-based Tests for Nonclassical Measurement Error – The Case of Fractional Random Variables," CeBER Working Papers 2018-13, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    14. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    15. Wen Xu, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-13, October.
    16. Özgür Orhangazi & A. Erinç Yeldan, 2021. "The Re‐making of the Turkish Crisis," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(3), pages 460-503, May.
    17. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Rosario Crinò & Gino Gancia, 2018. "Firms and Economic Performance: A view from Trade," Working Papers 1034, Barcelona School of Economics.
    18. Guriev, Sergei & Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "A theory of informational autocracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    19. Ufuk Akcigit & Sina T. Ates & Giammario Impullitti, 2018. "Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World," NBER Working Papers 24543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & Gino Gancia & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2015. "Offshoring and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 84-122, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:112871. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.