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Dealing with a Liquidity Trap when Government Debt Matters: Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary and Fiscal Policy

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  • Burgert, Matthias
  • Schmidt, Sebastian

Abstract

How does the need to preserve government debt sustainability affect the optimal monetary and fiscal policy response to a liquidity trap? To provide an answer, we employ a small stochastic New Keynesian model with a zero bound on nominal interest rates and characterize optimal time-consistent stabilization policies. We focus on two policy tools, the short-term nominal interest rate and debt-financed government spending. The optimal policy response to a liquidity trap critically depends on the prevailing debt burden. In our model, while the optimal amount of government spending is decreasing in the level of outstanding government debt, future monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, triggering a change in private sector expectations that helps to dampen the fall in output and inflation at the outset of the liquidity trap.

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  • Burgert, Matthias & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2014. "Dealing with a Liquidity Trap when Government Debt Matters: Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary and Fiscal Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100451, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc14:100451
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    Cited by:

    1. Roos, Michael W. M., 2015. "The macroeconomics of radical uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 592, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Boris Chafwehé & Rigas Oikonomou & Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2021. "(Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt," Staff Working Papers 21-5, Bank of Canada.
    3. Taisuke Nakata & Takeki Sunakawa, 2019. "Credible Forward Guidance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-037, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2014. "Are rules and boundaries sufficient to limit harmful central bank discretion? Lessons from Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 121-125.
    5. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2019. "Gradualism and Liquidity Traps," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 182-199, January.
    6. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    7. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Is there a threat of self-reinforcing deflation in the euro area? A view through the lens of the Phillips curve," Kiel Policy Brief 79, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Belgibayeva, Adiya & Horvath, Michal, 2019. "Real Rigidities And Optimal Stabilization At The Zero Lower Bound In New Keynesian Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1371-1400, June.
    9. Taisuke Nakata, 2017. "Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 186-221, July.
    10. Charles de Beauffort, 2020. "Fiscal And Monetary Policy Interactions In A Liquidity Trap When Government Debt Matters," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020033, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    11. Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Conservatism and liquidity traps," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 37-47.
    12. João Braz Pinto & João Sousa Andrade, 2015. "A Monetary Analysis of the Liquidity Trap," GEMF Working Papers 2015-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    13. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe & Radke, Lucas, 2022. "Counter-cyclical fiscal rules and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 2715, European Central Bank.
    14. Sebastian Schmidt, 2017. "Fiscal Activism and the Zero Nominal Interest Rate Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 695-732, June.
    15. Dufrénot, Gilles & Jawadi, Fredj & Khayat, Guillaume A., 2018. "A model of fiscal dominance under the “Reinhart Conjecture”," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 332-345.
    16. Taisuke Nakata, 2017. "Optimal Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound: A Non-Ricardian Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 150-169, January.
    17. de Beauffort, Charles, 2023. "When is government debt accumulation optimal in a liquidity trap?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    18. Séverine Menguy, 2016. "Optimal Budgetary Policies in New-Keynesian Models: Can they help when the Zero Lower Bound is binding?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 43-98.
    19. Dmitry Matveev, 2021. "Time‐Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 2129-2165, December.
    20. Batista, Quentin & Nakata, Taisuke & Sunakawa, Takeki, 2023. "Credible Forward Guidance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    21. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2019. "Gradualism and Liquidity Traps," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 182-199, January.
    22. Vines, David & Luk, Paul, 2015. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Economy with Endogenous Public Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 10580, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Billi , Roberto M. & Walsh, Carl E., 2022. "Seemingly Irresponsible but Welfare Improving Fiscal Policy at the Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 410, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    24. Taisuke Nakata, 2017. "Optimal Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound: A Non-Ricardian Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 150-169, January.
    25. Charles de Beauffort & Boris Chafwehé & Rigas Oikonomou, 2024. "Managing the inflation-output trade-off with public debt portfolios," Working Paper Research 450, National Bank of Belgium.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory

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