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Unit and fractional roots in the presence of abrupt changes with an application to the Brazilian inflation rate

  • Gil-Alaña, Luis A.
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    We analyse in this article the monthly structure of the Brazilian inflation rate by means of fractionally integrated techniques. This series is characterized by strong government interventions to bring inflation to a low level. We use a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994) which allow us to model the underlying dynamic of the series in terms of I(d) statistical models, while the government interventions are specified in terms of dummy variables. The results show that the series can be described in terms of an I(0.75) process with some of the interventions having little impact on the series.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/62697/1/725695730.pdf
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    Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2001,67.

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    Date of creation: 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200167
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    1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
    2. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    3. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David, 1994. "The Great Wars, the Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Some New Evidence About An Old Stylized Fact," CEPR Discussion Papers 965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. L. A. Gil-Alaña & Peter M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 298, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Apostolos Serletis, 1992. "The Random Walk in Canadian Output," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 392-406, May.
    6. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    7. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
    8. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
    9. Krol, Robert, 1992. "Trends, Random Walks and Persistence: An Empirical Study of Disaggregated U.S. Industrial Production," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 154-59, February.
    10. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
    11. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
    12. Terence C. Mills, 1994. "Infrequent Permanent Shocks And The Unit Root In Quarterly Uk Output," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 91-94, 01.
    13. Demery, D & Duck, N W, 1992. "Are Economic Fluctuations Really Persistent? A Reinterpretation of Some International Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1094-101, September.
    14. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
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