Are Economic Fluctuations Really Persistent? A Reinterpretation of Some International Evidence
In this paper, the authors show that estimates of J. H. Cochrane's (1988) suggested measure of the persistence of fluctuations in real output will be biased if there is a single break in the mean rate of growth of output. The authors then show that the major findings of J. Y. Campbell and N. G. Mankiw (1989)--that for a number of industrial countries estimates of Cochrane's measure of persistence are generally very high though different and that a subgroup of countries with high output persistence have low relative output persistence--can be largely accounted for by the difference in each country between its pre-1974 and post-1973 mean growth rates. Copyright 1992 by Royal Economic Society.
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Volume (Year): 102 (1992)
Issue (Month): 414 (September)
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