IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/imfswp/113.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of growth on unemployment in a low vs. a high inflation environment

Author

Listed:
  • Tesfaselassie, Mewael F.
  • Wolters, Maik

Abstract

During the 1970s, industrial countries, including the US and continental Europa, experienced a combination of slow productivity growth and high unemplyoment. Subsequent research has shown that the standard model of unemployment actually gives counterfactual predictions. Motivated by the observation that the 1970s were also characterized by high and rising inflation, Tesfaselassie and Wolters examine the effect of growth on unemployment in the presence of nominal price rigidity. The authors demonstrate that the effect of growth on unemployment may be positive or negative. Faster growth leads to lower unemployment if the rate of inflation is high enough. There is a threshold level of inflation below which faster growth leads to higher unemployment and above which faster growth leads to lower unemployment. The threshold level in turn depends on labor market characteristics, such as hiring efficiency, the job destruction rate, workers' relative bargaining power and the opportunity cost of work.

Suggested Citation

  • Tesfaselassie, Mewael F. & Wolters, Maik, 2017. "The impact of growth on unemployment in a low vs. a high inflation environment," IMFS Working Paper Series 113, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/157241/1/884602117.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5571 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2005. "Unemployment and vacancy fluctuations in the matching model: inspecting the mechanism," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 91(Sum), pages 19-50.
    5. Guido Ascari, 2004. "Staggered Prices and Trend Inflation: Some Nuisances," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 642-667, July.
    6. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2013. "Trend productivity growth and the government spending multiplier," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 197-207.
    7. Liam Graham & Dennis J. Snower, 2008. "Hyperbolic Discounting and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 427-448, March.
    8. Bean, Charles & Pissarides, Christopher, 1993. "Unemployment, consumption and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 837-854, May.
    9. Julien Prat, 2007. "The Impact of Disembodied Technological Progress on Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 106-125, January.
    10. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    11. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2011. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 371-398, February.
    12. Robert Shimer, 2010. "Labor Markets and Business Cycles," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9217.
    13. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & David Jestaz & Edmund S. Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2000. "Roots of the Recent Recoveries: Labor Reforms or Private Sector Forces?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 237-311.
    14. Galí, Jordi, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Unemployment," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 10, pages 487-546, Elsevier.
    15. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    16. Robert E. Hall, 2006. "Job Loss, Job Finding and Unemployment in the US Economy over the Past Fifty Years," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 101-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Andrea Vaona, 2013. "The Most Beautiful Variations on Fair Wages and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1069-1084, September.
    19. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
    20. Amano, Robert & Moran, Kevin & Murchison, Stephen & Rennison, Andrew, 2009. "Trend inflation, wage and price rigidities, and productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 353-364, April.
    21. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    22. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5571 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2013. "Inflation Targeting in a St. Louis Model of the 21st Century," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 543-574.
    24. Snower, Dennis J. & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2017. "Job Turnover, Trend Growth, And The Long-Run Phillips Curve," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 835-861, June.
    25. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    26. Antonella Trigari, 2006. "The Role of Search Frictions and Bargaining for Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 304, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    27. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. John G. Fernald, 2012. "A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on total factor productivity," Working Paper Series 2012-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    29. Eriksson, Clas, 1997. "Is There a Trade-Off between Employment and Growth?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 77-88, January.
    30. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. HIRAGUCHI Ryoji, 2021. "Optimal Wealth Taxation in the Schumpeterian Growth Model with Unemployment," Discussion papers 21056, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Daniela Sonedda, 2020. "Guess who's there: employment protection legislation and the degree of substitutability between labour contracts," IAAEU Discussion Papers 202007, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    3. M. Ajide, Folorunsho, 2020. "Asymmetric Influence Of Financial Development On Unemployment In Nigeria," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 7(2), pages 39-52, June.
    4. Ross Doppelt, 2019. "Skill Flows: A Theory of Human Capital and Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 84-122, January.
    5. Magnus Reif & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Maik H. Wolters, 2021. "Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 1016-1053, October.
    6. Dinopoulos, Elias & Grieben, Wolf-Heimo & Şener, Fuat, 2023. "A Policy Conundrum: Schumpeterian Growth or Job Creation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Leonardo Bianchi dos Santos & Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira, 2021. "Nominal Effects of Changes in Total Factor Productivity: Evidence for an Emerging Economy," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(12), pages 1-89, December.
    8. Rendra Gustriansyah & Juhaini Alie & Nazori Suhandi, 2023. "Modeling the number of unemployed in South Sumatra Province using the exponential smoothing methods," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1725-1737, April.
    9. Wei, Xiaoyun & Li, Jie & Han, Liyan, 2020. "Optimal targeted reduction in reserve requirement ratio in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-15.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tesfaselassie, Mewael, 2014. "Growth and unemployment in the presence of trend inflation," Kiel Working Papers 1978, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2016. "The impact of disembodied technological progress on working hours," Kiel Working Papers 2026, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Miyamoto, Hiroaki & Takahashi, Yuya, 2011. "Productivity growth, on-the-job search, and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 666-680.
    4. Hiroaki Miyamoto & Yuya Takahashi, 2009. "Technological Progress, On-the-Job Search, and Unemployment," ISER Discussion Paper 0734, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    5. Di Pace, F. & Faccini, R., 2012. "Deep habits and the cyclical behaviour of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 183-200.
    6. Magnus Reif & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Maik H. Wolters, 2021. "Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 1016-1053, October.
    7. F. Di Pace & K. Mitra & S. Zhang, 2021. "Adaptive Learning and Labor Market Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 441-475, March.
    8. del Rio, Fernando, 2010. "Investment-specific technical progress, capital obsolescence and job creation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 248-257, January.
    9. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2012. "Trend Inflation and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle," Working Papers Series 277, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Rogerson, Richard & Shimer, Robert, 2011. "Search in Macroeconomic Models of the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages Pages: 61, Elsevier.
    11. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and Unemployment Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 637-673, June.
    12. Costain, James S. & Reiter, Michael, 2008. "Business cycles, unemployment insurance, and the calibration of matching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1120-1155, April.
    13. Ahrens, Steffen & Snower, Dennis J., 2014. "Envy, guilt, and the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 69-84.
    14. Dossche, Maarten & Lewis, Vivien & Poilly, Céline, 2019. "Employment, hours and the welfare effects of intra-firm bargaining," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 67-84.
    15. Markus Brückner & Evi Pappa, 2012. "Fiscal Expansions, Unemployment, And Labor Force Participation: Theory And Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1205-1228, November.
    16. Obstbaum, Meri, 2011. "The role of labour markets in fiscal policy transmission," Research Discussion Papers 16/2011, Bank of Finland.
    17. Moon, Weh-Sol, 2018. "The Business Cycle With Nominal Contracts And Search Frictions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 307-330, March.
    18. Langot, François & Pizzo, Alessandra, 2019. "Accounting for labor gaps," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 312-347.
    19. Cheremukhin, Anton A. & Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina, 2014. "The labor wedge as a matching friction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 71-92.
    20. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Loukas Karabarbounis, 2016. "The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(6), pages 1563-1618.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth; trend inflation; unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hoffmde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.