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Wars, threats, and the sovereign bond market

Author

Listed:
  • Federle, Jonathan-Julian
  • Greenwood, Robin
  • Meyer, Josefin
  • Reinhart, Carmen M.
  • Trebesch, Christoph

Abstract

We study how wars and military threats affect financial markets. Leveraging more than 300,000 monthly price observations since 1822, we create an external currency bond index for more than 90 countries - the EXBI. Using the EXBI, we document large effects of wars on returns and borrowing costs. In a global external bond portfolio, a one-standard-deviation war shock lowers returns by five percentage points. At the country level, wars at home generate sharp losses and increase default risk. Military threats depress bond prices in threatened states, but not in threatening ones, highlighting their role as a channel for eoeconomic coercion.

Suggested Citation

  • Federle, Jonathan-Julian & Greenwood, Robin & Meyer, Josefin & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2026. "Wars, threats, and the sovereign bond market," Kiel Working Papers 2323, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:341991
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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