IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/eibwps/202204.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment expectations by vulnerable European firms: A difference-in-difference approach

Author

Listed:
  • Coad, Alexander
  • Amaral-Garcia, Sofia
  • Bauer, Peter
  • Domnick, Clemens
  • Harasztosi, Péter
  • Pál, Rozália
  • Teruel, Mercedes

Abstract

The effect of the COVID shock on European economies has been severe and also unequal, with some firms being affected much more strongly than others. To improve the effectiveness of policy interventions, policymakers need to understand which types of vulnerable firms have been suddenly pushed into dire circumstances. We seek to fill this important gap in our knowledge by providing evidence from the EIBIS (European Investment Bank Investment Survey, 2016-2020) on how the COVID shock has affected the investment activity and investment-related framework conditions of vulnerable firms. While data on actual investment activity post-COVID is not yet available to us, we focus on investment expectations. We exploit the fact that the same questions relating to investment expectations have been asked in several previous survey waves, which enables a difference-indifferences approach to investigate how investment expectations might have suddenly changed, for vulnerable groups of firms, immediately after the onset of the COVID crisis. We focus on 4 groups of vulnerable firms: High-Growth Enterprises (HGEs), young and small firms, R&D investors and nonsubsidiary firms. R&D investors are more likely to be pessimistic about investment plans as a consequence of the COVID shock, and (similarly) HGEs are less likely to be optimistic about investment plans. R&D investors are less likely to be optimistic about the availability of internal finance, while HGEs and R&D investors are more likely to be pessimistic about the availability of external finance. Subsidiary firms, interestingly, are more likely to report a decrease in expected investment, although this could be part of a conservative group-level strategy and coordinated group-level reduction in investment, however that is not caused by any detectable lack of access to (internal or external) finance. Event study graphs generally confirm our regression results.

Suggested Citation

  • Coad, Alexander & Amaral-Garcia, Sofia & Bauer, Peter & Domnick, Clemens & Harasztosi, Péter & Pál, Rozália & Teruel, Mercedes, 2022. "Investment expectations by vulnerable European firms: A difference-in-difference approach," EIB Working Papers 2022/04, European Investment Bank (EIB).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:eibwps:202204
    DOI: 10.2867/19683
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/251829/1/1797423398.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2867/19683?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2021. "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 333-372, January.
    2. Grégory Claeys & Zsolt Darvas & Maria Demertzis & Guntram B. Wolff, 2021. "The great COVID-19 divergence- managing a sustainable and equitable recovery in the European Union," Policy Contributions 42740, Bruegel.
    3. Didier, Tatiana & Huneeus, Federico & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Emanuele Brancati & Marco Brianti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2020. "Credit Constraints anf Firms' Decisions: Evidence from the COVID-19 Outbreak Italian Firms’ Expectations and Plans," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1013, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 07 Oct 2022.
    6. Xavier Cirera & Marcio Cruz & Elwyn Davies & Arti Grover & Leonardo Iacovone & Jose Ernesto Lopez Cordova & Denis Medvedev & Franklin Okechukwu Maduko & Gaurav Nayyar & Santiago Reyes Ortega & Jesica , 0. "Policies to Support Businesses through the COVID-19 Shock: A Firm Level Perspective," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 36(1), pages 41-66.
    7. Anoosheh Rostamkalaei & Mark Freel, 2016. "The cost of growth: small firms and the pricing of bank loans," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 255-272, February.
    8. Nicholas Bloom & Robert S. Fletcher & Ethan Yeh, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on US Firms," NBER Working Papers 28314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Luis Garicano & Claudia Steinwender, 2016. "Survive Another Day: Using Changes in the Composition of Investments to Measure the Cost of Credit Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 913-924, December.
    10. Brutscher, Philipp-Bastian & Coali, Andrea & Delanote, Julie & Harasztosi, Peter, 2020. "EIB Group Survey on Investment and Investment Finance: A technical note on data quality," EIB Working Papers 2020/08, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    11. Alves, Pana & Dejuan, Daniel & Maurin, Laurent, 2019. "Can survey-based information help to assess investment gaps in the EU?," EIB Working Papers 2019/04, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    12. Tarun Khanna & Yishay Yafeh, 2007. "Business Groups in Emerging Markets: Paragons or Parasites?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 331-372, June.
    13. Coad, Alexander & Domnick, Clemens & Flachenecker, Florian & Harasztosi, Peter & Janiri, Mario Lorenzo & Pál, Rozália & Teruel Carrizosa, Mercedes, 2021. "Do capacity constraints trigger high growth for enterprises?," EIB Working Papers 2021/08, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    14. Bronwyn Hall, 2004. "The financing of research and development," Chapters, in: Anthony Bartzokas & Sunil Mani (ed.), Financial Systems, Corporate Investment in Innovation, and Venture Capital, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Mariacristina Piva & Marco Vivarelli, 2007. "Is demand-pulled innovation equally important in different groups of firms?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(5), pages 691-710, September.
    16. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    17. Pana Alves & Daniel Dejuán & Laurent Maurin, 2019. "Can survey-based information help assess investment gaps in the eu?," Occasional Papers 1908, Banco de España.
    18. Gadi Barlevy, 2007. "On the Cyclicality of Research and Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1131-1164, September.
    19. Lalinsky, Tibor & Pál, Rozália, 2021. "Efficiency and effectiveness of the COVID-19 government support: Evidence from firm-level data," EIB Working Papers 2021/06, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    20. Meinen, Philipp & Serafini, Roberta & Papagalli, Ottavia, 2021. "Regional economic impact of Covid-19: the role of sectoral structure and trade linkages," Working Paper Series 2528, European Central Bank.
    21. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Brancati, Emanuele & Brianti, Marco & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2020. "The Economic Effects of COVID-19 and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Italian Firms' Expectations and Plans," IZA Discussion Papers 13629, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "Who Creates Jobs? Small versus Large versus Young," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 347-361, May.
    23. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    24. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "COVID-19 and Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises: A 2021 "Time Bomb"?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 282-286, May.
    25. Xavier Cirera & Marcio Cruz & Elwyn Davies & Arti Grover & Leonardo Iacovone & Jose Ernesto Lopez Cordova & Denis Medvedev & Franklin Okechukwu Maduko & Gaurav Nayyar & Santiago Reyes Ortega & Jesica , 2021. "Policies to Support Businesses through the COVID-19 Shock: A Firm Level Perspective [Economic Uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 36(1), pages 41-66.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zimmermann Volker & Köhler-Geib Fritzi, 2023. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Different Groups of SMEs in Germany and Their Recovery," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 58(6), pages 333-341, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alex Coad & Sofia Amaral-Garcia & Peter Bauer & Clemens Domnick & Peter Harasztosi & Rozália Pál & Mercedes Teruel, 2023. "Investment expectations by vulnerable European firms in times of COVID," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(1), pages 193-220, March.
    2. Alejandro Fernández-Cerezo & Beatriz Gonzalez & Mario Izquierdo Peinado & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2023. "Firm-level heterogeneity in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(42), pages 4946-4974, September.
    3. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Juan Máñez & María Rochina-Barrachina & Amparo Sanchis-Llopis & Juan Sanchis-Llopis, 2015. "The determinants of R&D persistence in SMEs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 505-528, March.
    5. Galindo, Arturo & Tovar, Jorge, 2022. "Policy Support and Firm Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12591, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Brancati, Emanuele, 2023. "R&D plans, expectations, and uncertainty: Evidence from the COVID-19 shock in Italy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 303-318.
    7. Alex Coad & Clemens Domnick & Florian Flachenecker & Peter Harasztosi & Mario Lorenzo Janiri & Rozalia Pal & Mercedes Teruel, 2022. "Capacity constraints as a trigger for high growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 893-923, October.
    8. Barth, Erling & Davis, James C. & Freeman, Richard B. & McElheran, Kristina, 2023. "Twisting the demand curve: Digitalization and the older workforce," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 443-467.
    9. Teplykh, Grigorii & Galimardanov, Amal, 2017. "Modeling of innovative investment in Russian regions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 46, pages 104-125.
    10. Guerrero-Amezaga, Maria Elena & Humphries, John Eric & Neilson, Christopher A. & Shimberg, Naomi & Ulyssea, Gabriel, 2022. "Small firms and the pandemic: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    11. Athira, A. & Ramesh, Vishnu K., 2023. "COVID-19 and corporate tax avoidance: International evidence," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4).
    12. Ducret, Romain, 2021. "Investors' perception of business group membership during an economic crisis : Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," FSES Working Papers 524, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    13. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2020. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," NBER Working Papers 28233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Isabel Busom & Jorge-Andrés Vélez-Ospina, 2021. "Subsidising innovation over the business cycle," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 773-803, July.
    15. Dario Guarascio & Mario Pianta & Francesco Bogliacino, 2017. "Export, R&D and New Products: A Model and a Test on European Industries," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Andreas Pyka & Uwe Cantner (ed.), Foundations of Economic Change, pages 393-432, Springer.
    16. Cefis, Elena & Bartoloni, Eleonora & Bonati, Marco, 2020. "Show me how to live: Firms' financial conditions and innovation during the crisis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 63-81.
    17. Ugur, Mehmet & Trushin, Eshref, 2018. "Asymmetric information and heterogeneous effects of R&D subsidies: evidence on R&D investment and employment of R&D personel," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 21943, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    18. Banerjee, Pradip & Dhole, Sandip & Mishra, Sagarika, 2023. "Operating performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: Is there a business group advantage?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Erzo Luttmer, 2017. "Slow Convergence in Economies with Organization Capital," 2017 Meeting Papers 1117, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Ozan Hatipoglu, 2012. "The relationship between inequality and innovative activity: a S chumpeterian theory and evidence from cross‐country data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(2), pages 224-248, May.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:eibwps:202204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceeiblu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.