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Climate Minsky Moments and endogenous financial crises

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  • Kaldorf, Matthias
  • Rottner, Matthias

Abstract

Does a shift to ambitious climate policy increase financial fragility? In this paper, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with carbon taxes and endogenous financial crises to study such "Climate Minsky Moments". By reducing asset returns, an accelerated transition to net zero exerts deleveraging pressure on the financial sector, initially elevating the financial crisis probability substantially. However, carbon taxes improve long-run financial stability since permanently lower asset returns reduce the buildup of excessive leverage. Quantitatively, we find that the net financial stability effect of ambitious climate policy is positive for low but empirically plausible social discount rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaldorf, Matthias & Rottner, Matthias, 2024. "Climate Minsky Moments and endogenous financial crises," Discussion Papers 26/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:300701
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Kenneth T. Gillingham & Simon Scheidegger & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Kenneth Gillingham, 2024. "Climate Change through the Lens of Macroeconomic Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 11346, CESifo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Burgert & Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Luigi Durand & Mario González & Romanos Priftis & Oke Röhe & Matthias Rottner & Edgar Silgado-Gómez & Nikolai Stähler & Janos Varga, 2025. "Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes: A model comparison," Working Papers 2550, Banco de España.
    2. Lukman A. Lasisi & Franklin N. Ngwu & Mohammed K. Taliat & Abeeb O. Olaniran & Kelechi C. Nnamdi, 2025. "Modelling commodity market volatility with climate policy uncertainty: a GARCH-MIDAS approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 1-21, March.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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