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Comparing China's GDP statistics with coincident indicators

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  • Mehrotra, Aaron
  • Pääkkönen, Jenni

Abstract

We use factor analysis to summarize information from various macroeconomic indicators, effectively producing coincident indicators for the Chinese economy. We compare the dynamics of the estimated factors with GDP, and compare our factors with other published indicators for the Chinese economy. The indicator data match the GDP dynamics well and discrepancies are very short. The periods of discrepancies seem to correspond to shocks affecting the growth process as neither autoregressive models for GDP itself nor various coincident indicators are able to forecast them satisfactorily.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehrotra, Aaron & Pääkkönen, Jenni, 2011. "Comparing China's GDP statistics with coincident indicators," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2011_001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Numan Ülkü & Kexing Wu, 2023. "Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(5), pages 1-25, September.
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    3. Mayo, Robert, 2015. "Hidden Risk: Detecting Fraud in Chinese Banks’ Non-performing Loan Data," MPRA Paper 98435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Holz, Carsten A., 2014. "The quality of China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 309-338.
    5. Jinshan Zhu & Hui Yao & Yingkai Tang & Liyong Wang, 2015. "An econometric analysis of sub-national Clean Development Mechanism performance in China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1137-1153, October.
    6. Lyu, Changjiang & Wang, Kemin & Zhang, Frank & Zhang, Xin, 2018. "GDP management to meet or beat growth targets," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 318-338.
    7. Chen, Shuo & Qiao, Xue & Zhu, Zhitao, 2021. "Chasing or cheating? Theory and evidence on China's GDP manipulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 657-671.
    8. Holz, Carsten A, 2013. "Chinese statistics: classification systems and data sources," MPRA Paper 43869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Liu, Ping & James Hueng, C., 2017. "Measuring real business condition in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 261-274.
    10. Ma, Ben & Song, Guojun & Zhang, Lei & Sonnenfeld, David A., 2014. "Explaining sectoral discrepancies between national and provincial statistics in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 353-369.
    11. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 195-212.
    12. Haoyang Zhao & Jian Xu & Xinteng Liu, 2017. "How to evaluate the reliability of regional input–output data? A case for China," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Zhang, Jin & Li, Pujiang & Zhao, Guochang, 2018. "Is power generation really the gold measure of the Chinese economy? A conceptual and empirical assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 211-216.
    14. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 195-212.
    15. Schröder, Michael, 2017. "Konjunkturindikatoren für China: Projektbericht für das Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Wohnungsbau Baden-Württemberg," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 162730.
    16. Heiner Mikosch & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Forecasting Chinese GDP Growth with Mixed Frequency Data," KOF Working papers 14-359, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    factor models; principal component; GDP; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • P2 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies

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