An Asset Market Integration Test Based on Observable Macroeconomic Stochastic Discount Factors
There are a number of tests and measures of the degree of integration in the literature. An example is the idea that integrated markets should provide rates of return that are highly correlated with one another and that a measure of correlation provides an appropriate test. This particular idea is clearly false; for substantial periods of time we don't ever see stocks traded on the same market moving together. Specific models of what prices risk in individual markets could provide the basis of a test of integration. However, as has been widely shown, any differences between these pricing models will be subject to arbitrage by informed traders and so cannot form the basis for a test. In this paper we exploit the absence of arbitrage possibilities and the operation of the 'Law of One Price' in stochastic discount factor (SDF) theory to construct a test of integration based on a common approach to pricing assets in all markets, not only for stocks. The SDF approach that we adopt says that one SDF should price all assets as the model is not market or asset-specific.Unlike much of the literature, we adopt a direct parametric approach which takes estimates of an identical SDF from two asset markets and asks whether the price of risk associated with this SDF is the same for the two assets as SDF theory says it should. Another distinctive feature of our approach is that we employ observable macroeconomic factors. This allows us to estimate and compare the estimated risk premia in the markets concerned, with and without the integration restriction being applied. The paper uses this methodology to test market integration between the UK equity and FOREX markets. Our test rejects market integration for the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) and two variable SDF models based on consumption growth and inflation and on output and money growth. As equity and FOREX returns have a similar degree of variability, the finding that the risk premium in the FOREX market is generally much more variable than that in the equity market may contribute to the the test outcome.
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978.
"Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory,"
Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
- David M Kreps & Evan L Porteus, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625018000000000009, David K. Levine.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991.
"Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-62, April.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," NBER Technical Working Papers 0089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- L. Epstein & S. Zin, 2010.
"First order risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
1400, David K. Levine.
- Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990. "'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December.
- Smith, Peter & Wickens, Michael, 2002.
" Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
- Peter N Smith & Michael R Wickens, . "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Discussion Papers 02/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Andrew K. Rose & Robert P. Flood, 2004.
"Financial Integration; A New Methodology and An Illustration,"
IMF Working Papers
04/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2005. "Financial Integration: A New Methodology And An Illustration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1349-1359, December.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 2003. "Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2003. "Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration," NBER Working Papers 9880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- P N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, .
"Macroeconomic Sources of Equity Risk,"
03/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Chen, Zhiwu & Knez, Peter J, 1995. "Measurement of Market Integration and Arbitrage," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 287-325.
- John Y. Campbell, 2002.
"Consumption-Based Asset Pricing,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:03/14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paul Hodgson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.