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Subordinated alpha-stable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process as a tool for financial data description

Author

Listed:
  • Joanna Janczura
  • Sebastian Orzel
  • Agnieszka Wylomanska

Abstract

The classical financial models are based on the standard Brownian diffusion-type processes. However, in exhibition of some real market data (like interest or exchange rates) we observe characteristic periods of constant values. Moreover, in the case of financial data, the assumption of normality is often unsatisfied. In such cases the popular Vasicek model, that is a mathematical system describing the evolution of interest rates based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, seems not to be applicable. Therefore we propose an alternative approach based on a combination of the popular Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a stable distribution and subdiffusion systems that demonstrate such characteristic behavior. The probability density function of the proposed process can be described by a Fokker-Planck type equation and therefore it can be examined as an extension of the basic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. In this paper we propose the parameters' estimation method and calibrate the subordinated Vasicek model to the interest rate data.

Suggested Citation

  • Joanna Janczura & Sebastian Orzel & Agnieszka Wylomanska, 2011. "Subordinated alpha-stable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process as a tool for financial data description," HSC Research Reports HSC/11/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1103
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    File URL: http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo/RePEc/wuu/wpaper/HSC_11_03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aleksander Janicki & Aleksander Weron, 1994. "Simulation and Chaotic Behavior of Alpha-stable Stochastic Processes," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, number hsbook9401, December.
    2. Krzysztof Burnecki & Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2011. "Building loss models," Springer Books, in: Pavel Cizek & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Rafał Weron (ed.), Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance, chapter 9, pages 293-328, Springer.
    3. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Black swans or dragon kings? A simple test for deviations from the power law," Papers 1102.3712, arXiv.org.
    4. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
    5. Young Kim & Svetlozar Rachev & Michele Bianchi & Frank Fabozzi, 2009. "Computing VAR and AVaR in Infinitely Divisible Distributions," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2569, Yale School of Management.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Li, Wei & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2022. "Modelling the evolution of wind and solar power infeed forecasts," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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