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The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Model of Imperfect Information: Theory and Evidence

  • Rui Albuquerque

    (Simon School of Business, University of Rochester)

This paper studies the forward premium puzzle in an environment where private agents do not perfectly observe the shocks that drive monetary policy. Private agents optimally update their conditional expectations by means of the Kalman filter. The transition dynamics associated with Kalman filtering lead to fixed time-effects and conditional heteroskedasticity in the forward premium regression. I provide evidence for the presence of time-effects in the forward premium regression and find that the forward premium puzzle is significantly weakened. In particular, a 1 percent increase in the 1-month interest differential is expected to be accompanied by an additional 0.34 percent depreciation of the currency in the following month.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0405/0405007.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0405007.

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Date of creation: 06 May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0405007
Note: Type of Document - pdf
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Korajczyk, Robert A, 1985. "The Pricing of Forward Contracts for Foreign Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 346-68, April.
  2. Mayfield, E. Scott & Murphy, Robert G., 1992. "Interest rate parity and the exchange risk premium Evidence from panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 319-324, November.
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  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  6. Chris I. Telmer, 1991. "Asset Pricing Puzzles and Incomplete Markets," Working Papers 806, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  7. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Stulz, Rene M, 1987. "An Equilibrium Model of Exchange Rate Determination and Asset Pricing with Nontraded Goods and Imperfect Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1024-40, October.
  10. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1994. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1994. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Marston, Richard C., 1997. "Tests of three parity conditions: Distinguishing risk premia and systematic forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 285-303, April.
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  16. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  18. Lewis, Karen K., 1988. "The persistence of the `peso problem' when policy is noisy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 5-21, March.
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  20. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1993. "Profits, risk, and uncertainty in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 259-286, November.
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  25. repec:dgr:kubcen:199707 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Bekaert, Geert, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 29-52, February.
  27. Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February.
  28. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  29. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  30. Bachman, Daniel, 1992. "The effect of political risk on the forward exchange bias: the case of elections," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 208-219, April.
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