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HIV/AIDS and its impact on convergence in life expectancy, infant and child survival rates

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  • Eric Neumayer

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of HIV/AIDS on the global convergence in life expectancy as well as infant and child survival rates by comparing two scenarios. One is based on actual estimated and extrapolated values given the existence of the epidemic (‘AIDS- scenario’). The other is based on hypothetical values based on estimations where the mortality caused by the epidemic is taken out (‘No AIDS-scenario’). Both â- and ó-convergence analysis is undertaken both with and without weighting by population size. In the ‘AIDS-scenario’ convergence in life expectancy becomes stalled in the late 1980s (without weighting) or 1990s (with weighting). Convergence in infant and child survival rates does not become stalled, but slows down. That these results are mainly due to the epidemic follows from the convergence analysis in the ‘No AIDS-scenario’, where all signs of stalled convergence or even divergence disappear. The reason why HIV/AIDS has such a strong impact on convergence is because the disease is most prevalent in low-income countries with rampant poverty, deficient health care systems and relatively low life expectancies and survival rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Neumayer, 2004. "HIV/AIDS and its impact on convergence in life expectancy, infant and child survival rates," HEW 0405001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwphe:0405001 Note: Type of Document -
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Pierre Lachaud, 2005. "Prévalence du VIH et pauvreté en Afrique : Evidence micro et macro-économétrique appliquée au Burkina Faso," Documents de travail 112, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    2. Christopher Grigoriou, 2011. "Survival Convergence: Specification Matters," Working Papers halshs-00556799, HAL.

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    JEL classification:

    • I - Health, Education, and Welfare

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