Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results
Subjects (n = 1015) working individually in the role of managers were asked to choose between investment opportunities that would either double their investment or cause the loss of half of it. Six administrators ran experiments on 27 occasions in six countries over a five-year period. Information about the BCG matrix increased the subjects' likelihood of selecting the project that was clearly less profitable. Of subjects exposed to the BCG matrix, 64% selected the unprofitable investment. Of subjects who used the BCG matrix in their analysis, 87% selected the less profitable investment.
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- Arkes, Hal R. & Dawes, Robyn M. & Christensen, Caryn, 1986. "Factors influencing the use of a decision rule in a probabilistic task," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 93-110, February.
- Arkes, Hal R. & Blumer, Catherine, 1985. "The psychology of sunk cost," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 124-140, February.
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