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Statistical Modeling of Fishing Activities in the North Atlantic

  • Carmen Fernandez

    (CentER and Dept of Econometrics/Tilburg University/The Netherlands)

  • Eduardo Ley

    (FEDEA/Madrid/Spain)

  • Mark F.J. Steel

    (CentER and Dept of Econometrics/Tilburg University/The Netherlands)

This paper deals with the issue of modeling daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We have data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the North Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics ---such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used, the mesh size of the nets, etc.---, are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. In all, our database leads to 23 possible regressors, resulting in a set of $8.4\times 10^6$ possible linear regression models. Prediction of future catches and posterior inference will be based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition (MC$^3$) approach. Particular attention is paid to the elicitation of the prior and the prediction of catch for single and aggregated observations.

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File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/em/papers/9712/9712001.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9712001.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 04 Dec 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9712001
Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF 3.0; prepared on Textures 1.7, MacOS 8, Acrobat Distiller 3.0; to print on any printer; pages: 22; figures: included. (Data and code will be posted shortly.)
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  1. Min, C.K. & Zellner, A., 1992. ""Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods for Combining Models and Forecasts with Applications to Forecasting International Growth Rates"," Papers 90-92-23, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  2. Carmen Fernández & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, . "Benchmark priors for Bayesian Model averaging," Working Papers 98-06, FEDEA.
  3. Jacek OSIEWALSKI & Mark F.J. STEEL, 1993. "Regression Models under Competing Covariance Structures: A Bayesian Perspective," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 32, pages 65-79.
  4. Eva Ferreira & Fernando Tusell, 1996. "Un modelo aditivo semiparamétrico para estimación de capturas: el caso de las pesquerías de Terranova," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 20(1), pages 143-157, January.
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