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A Scoring Model of the Risk of Costly Arrears at a Microfinance Lender in Bolivia

  • Mark Schreiner

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

Can scoring models help microfinance lenders in poor countries as much as they have helped credit-card lenders in rich countries? I model the probability that loans from a microlender in Bolivia had arrears of 15 days or more. Although arrears in microfinance depend on many factors difficult to include in statistical models, I find that inexpensive data does indeed have some predictive power. In microfinance, computer models will not replace loan officers, but they can flag the highest risks and act as a cross-check on human judgement.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/dev/papers/0109/0109005.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0109005.

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Date of creation: 05 Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0109005
Note: Type of Document - Adobe Acrobat 3.0; prepared on Windows 98; to print on Adobe Acrobat 3.0; pages: ; figures: Included in pdf file
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  1. Jens Reinke, 1998. "How to lend like mad and make a profit: A micro-credit paradigm versus the start-up fund in South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 44-61.
  2. Loretta J. Mester, 1997. "What's the point of credit scoring?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-16.
  3. Zeller, Manfred, 1996. "Determinants of repayment performance in credit groups," FCND discussion papers 13, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541.
  5. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, August.
  6. Sharma, Manohar & Zeller, Manfred, 1997. "Repayment performance in group-based credit programs in Bangladesh: An empirical analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1731-1742, October.
  7. Reichert, Alan K & Cho, Chien-Ching & Wagner, George M, 1983. "An Examination of the Conceptual Issues Involved in Developing Credit-scoring Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 101-14, April.
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