A Scoring Model of the Risk of Costly Arrears at a Microfinance Lender in Bolivia
Can scoring models help microfinance lenders in poor countries as much as they have helped credit-card lenders in rich countries? I model the probability that loans from a microlender in Bolivia had arrears of 15 days or more. Although arrears in microfinance depend on many factors difficult to include in statistical models, I find that inexpensive data does indeed have some predictive power. In microfinance, computer models will not replace loan officers, but they can flag the highest risks and act as a cross-check on human judgement.
|Date of creation:||05 Sep 2001|
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