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Scoring Drop-Out at a Microlender in Bolivia

Author

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  • Mark Schreiner

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract

This paper presents a scoring model that predicts the risk of drop-out for borrowers at a microfinance lender in Bolivia. Drop-out risk was greater for women, manufacturers, newer borrowers, and those with more arrears. Out-of-sample tests suggest that scoring may help microfinance lenders to detect segments of their clientele (and even specific current clients) who are at-risk of drop-out.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Schreiner, 2001. "Scoring Drop-Out at a Microlender in Bolivia," Development and Comp Systems 0109009, EconWPA.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0109009
    Note: Type of Document - Adobe Acrobat 3.0; prepared on Windows 98; to print on Adobe Acrobat 3.0; pages: ; figures: Included in pdf file
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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/dev/papers/0109/0109009.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wiginton, John C., 1980. "A Note on the Comparison of Logit and Discriminant Models of Consumer Credit Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 757-770, September.
    2. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-138, February.
    3. D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541.
    4. Greene, William, 1998. "Sample selection in credit-scoring models1," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 299-316, July.
    5. Navajas, Sergio & Schreiner, Mark & Meyer, Richard L. & Gonzalez-vega, Claudio & Rodriguez-meza, Jorge, 2000. "Microcredit and the Poorest of the Poor: Theory and Evidence from Bolivia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 333-346, February.
    6. Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
    7. Loretta J. Mester, 1997. "What's the point of credit scoring?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-16.
    8. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Schicks, Jessica, 2014. "Over-Indebtedness in Microfinance – An Empirical Analysis of Related Factors on the Borrower Level," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 301-324.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Scoring; credit risk; risk management; financial institutions; microfinance;

    JEL classification:

    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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