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An Empirical Study of the Credit Market with Unobserved Consumer Typers

  • Li Gan
  • Roberto Mosquera

This paper proposes an econometric model to identify unobserved consumer types in the credit market. Consumers choose different amounts of loan because of differences in their time or risk preferences (types). Thus, the unconditional probability of default is modeled using a mixture density combining a type-conditioning default variable with a type-determining random variable. The model is estimated using individual-level consumer credit card information. The parameter estimates and statistical tests support this kind of specification. Furthermore, the model produces better out-of-sample predictions on the probability of default than traditional models; hence, it provides evidence of the existence of types in the consumer credit market.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w13873.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13873.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13873
Note: IO
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  1. Christopher R. Knittel & Victor Stango, 2003. "Price Ceilings as Focal Points for Tacit Collusion: Evidence from Credit Cards," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1703-1729, December.
  2. Milde, Hellmuth & Riley, John G, 1988. "Signaling in Credit Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 101-29, February.
  3. D. J. Hand & W. E. Henley, 1997. "Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: a Review," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 523-541.
  4. Edelstein, Robert H, 1975. "Improving the Selection of Credit Risks: An Analysis of a Commercial Bank Minority Lending Program," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 37-55, March.
  5. Wiginton, John C., 1980. "A Note on the Comparison of Logit and Discriminant Models of Consumer Credit Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 757-770, September.
  6. Spence, A Michael, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 355-74, August.
  7. Stahl, Dale II & Wilson, Paul W., 1994. "Experimental evidence on players' models of other players," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 309-327, December.
  8. Feinstein, Jonathan S, 1990. "Detection Controlled Estimation," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 233-76, April.
  9. Jaffee, Dwight M & Russell, Thomas, 1976. "Imperfect Information, Uncertainty, and Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 651-66, November.
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