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Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany: an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis

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  • Longhi, Simonetta
  • Nijkamp, Peter
  • Reggiani, Aura
  • Blien, Uwe

Abstract

The aim of the present paper is to forecast regional employment developments in the 327 West-German districts. Using a Neural Networks (NNs) methodology we try to identify the existence of underlying structural relationships between the input variables - data on regional and sectoral employment and wages - and the future development of employment at a district level. In order to offer reliable forecasts for the years 2000 and 2001, a variety of NN models has been developed and compared. The emerging results confirm the ability of NNs in capturing the complex data structures - in the training and test phases - and hence in 'extrapolating' useful information in a multi-regional context. Concerning the forecasting phases, our analysis highlights the necessity of carrying out further research experiments - by introducing additional economic background variables - in order to get more insight into the mechanism and structure of spatio-temporal employment data.

Suggested Citation

  • Longhi, Simonetta & Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura & Blien, Uwe, 2002. "Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany: an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa02p117, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p117
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Patuelli & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets," Experimental 0511001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura & Tsang, Wai Fai, 2004. "Comparative modelling of interregional transport flows: Applications to multimodal European freight transport," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(3), pages 584-602, June.
    3. Roberto Patuelli & Peter Nijkamp & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani, 2008. "Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms as Forecasting Tools: A Case Study on German Regions," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(4), pages 701-722, August.
    4. Roberto Patuelli & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien, 2006. "New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment: an Analysis of German Labour Markets," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 7-30.
    5. Roberto Patuelli & Peter Nijkamp & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani, 2008. "Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms as Forecasting Tools: A Case Study on German Regions," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(4), pages 701-722, August.

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