Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany: an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis
The aim of the present paper is to forecast regional employment developments in the 327 West-German districts. Using a Neural Networks (NNs) methodology we try to identify the existence of underlying structural relationships between the input variables - data on regional and sectoral employment and wages - and the future development of employment at a district level. In order to offer reliable forecasts for the years 2000 and 2001, a variety of NN models has been developed and compared. The emerging results confirm the ability of NNs in capturing the complex data structures - in the training and test phases - and hence in 'extrapolating' useful information in a multi-regional context. Concerning the forecasting phases, our analysis highlights the necessity of carrying out further research experiments - by introducing additional economic background variables - in order to get more insight into the mechanism and structure of spatio-temporal employment data.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria|
Web page: http://www.ersa.org
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sato, Yasuhiro, 2000. "Search theory and the wage curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 93-98, January.
- Groot Wim & Mekkelholt Eddie & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1992. "Further evidence on the wage curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 355-359, March.
- Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2001.
"Equilibrium unemployment and wage formation with matching frictions and worker moral hazard,"
Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-102, January.
- Guillaume ROCHETEAU, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment and Wage Formation with Matching Frictions and Worker Moral Hazard," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 00.07, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
- Blien, Uwe & Tassinopoulos, Alexandros, 1999.
"Forecasting Regional Employment with the ENTROP Method,"
ERSA conference papers
ersa99pa344, European Regional Science Association.
- Uwe Blien & Alexandros Tassinopoulos, 2001. "Forecasting Regional Employment with the ENTROP Method," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 113-124.
- Decressin, Jörg & Fatás, Antonio, 1994.
"Regional Labour Market Dynamics in Europe,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kennedy, Steven & Borland, Jeff, 2000.
"A Wage Curve for Australia?,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 774-803, October.
- Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec..
- Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
- Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2002.
"The Last Word on the Wage Curve?,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
02-029/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Mar 2003.
- Blanchflower, D. & Oswald, A., 1989.
"The Wage Curve,"
340, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
- Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 1997. "Wage Setting, Wage Curve and Phillips Curve: The Italian Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(5), pages 545-65, November.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November.
- Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-90, September.
- Kare Johansen, 1997. "The wage curve: convexity, kinks and composition effects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 71-78.
- Thiess Buettner, 1999. "The effect of unemployment, aggregate wages, and spatial contiguity on local wages: An investigation with German district level data," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 78(1), pages 47-67.
- Janssens, Stefan & Konings, Jozef, 1998. "One more wage curve: the case of Belgium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 223-227, August.
- Krugman, Paul, 1998. "What's New about the New Economic Geography?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 7-17, Summer.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
- Fischer, Manfred M. & Reismann, Martin & Hlavackova-Schindler, Katerina, 2000. "Evaluating Neural Spatial Interaction. Modelling By Bootstrapping," ERSA conference papers ersa00p370, European Regional Science Association.
- Paul Krugman, 1998. "Space: The Final Frontier," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 161-174, Spring.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.