Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets
This paper develops a flexible multi-dimensional assessment method for the comparison of different statistical-econometric techniques based on learning mechanisms, with a view to analysing and forecasting regional labour markets. The aim of this paper is twofold. A first major objective is to explore the use of a standard choice tool, namely Multicriteria Analysis (MCA), in order to cope with the intrinsic methodological uncertainty on the choice of a suitable statistical- econometric learning technique for regional labour market analysis. MCA is applied here to support choices on the performance of various models – based on classes of Neural Network (NN) techniques – that serve to generate employment forecasts in West Germany at a regional/district level. A second objective of the paper is to analyse the methodological potential of a blend of approaches (NN-MCA) in order to extend the analysis framework to other economic research domains, where formal models are not available, but where a variety of statistical data is present. The paper offers a basis for a more balanced judgement of the performance of rival statistical tests.
|Date of creation:||08 Nov 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Type of Document - pdf; pages: 26. Published in: Studies in Regional Science 33 (3): 205-230|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Uwe Blien & Alexandros Tassinopoulos, 2001.
"Forecasting Regional Employment with the ENTROP Method,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 113-124.
- Blien, Uwe & Tassinopoulos, Alexandros, 1999. "Forecasting Regional Employment with the ENTROP Method," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa344, European Regional Science Association.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I just ran four million regressions,"
Economics Working Papers
201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Longhi, Simonetta & Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura & Blien, Uwe, 2002. "Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany: an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa02p117, European Regional Science Association.
- Reggiani, Aura & Nijkamp, Peter & Sabella, Enrico, 2001. "New advances in spatial network modelling: Towards evolutionary algorithms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 385-401, January.
- Edwin Hinloopen & Peter Nijkamp, 1990. "Qualitative multiple criteria choice analysis," Quality & Quantity- International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 37-56, February.
- Manfred M. Fischer & Yee Leung, 1998. "A genetic-algorithms based evolutionary computational neural network for modelling spatial interaction data," ERSA conference papers ersa98p478, European Regional Science Association.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpex:0511001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.