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Evaluating Neural Spatial Interaction. Modelling By Bootstrapping

Listed author(s):
  • Fischer, Manfred M.
  • Reismann, Martin
  • Hlavackova-Schindler, Katerina

This paper exposes problems of the commonly used technique of splitting the available data in neural spatial interaction modelling into training, validation, and test sets that are held fixed and warns about drawing too strong conclusions from such static splits. Using a bootstrapping procedure, we compare the uncertainty in the solution stemming from the data splitting with model specific uncertainties such as parameter initialization. Utilizing the Austrian interregional telecommunication traffic data and the differential evolution method for solving the parameter estimation task for a fixed topology of the network model [ i.e. J = 9] this paper illustrates that the variation due to different resamplings is significantly larger than the variation due to different parameter initializations. This result implies that it is important to not over-interpret a model, estimated on one specific static split of the data.

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File URL: http://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa00/pdf-ersa/pdf/370.pdf
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Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa00p370.

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Date of creation: Aug 2000
Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa00p370
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  1. Manfred M. Fischer & Katerina Hlavácková-Schindler & Martin Reismann, 1999. "articles: A global search procedure for parameter estimation in neural spatial interaction modelling," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 78(2), pages 119-134.
  2. S Openshaw, 1998. "Neural network, genetic, and fuzzy logic models of spatial interaction," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 30(10), pages 1857-1872, October.
  3. M M Fischer, 1998. "Computational neural networks: a new paradigm for spatial analysis," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 30(10), pages 1873-1891, October.
  4. Fischer, Manfred M. & Gopal, Sucharita, 1994. "Artificial Neural Networks. A New Approach to Modelling Interregional Telecommunication Flows," MPRA Paper 77822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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