Convergence and shocks in the road to EU: Empirical investigations for Bulgaria and Romania
Despite their progress Bulgaria and Romania significantly differ from the EU economies. In this article, on the basis of the theoretical and empirical achievements of the theory of optimal and (endogenous) currency areas we study to what extent the two South European economies are able to adopt the common economic (and above all monetary) policy of the EU, and to what extent the convergence to the EU stimulates the economic development of these countries. Despite the similarities, the two countries now differ fundamentally in their choice of a monetary regime ??? while Romania uses inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate, Bulgaria has adopted a currency board regime. For this purpose we analyze: (i) the degree of nominal, real and financial convergence and synchronization of the economic cycle with that of the European Union (using unconditional ?? convergence approach). Income and price levels, inflation rate, interest rate, monetary aggregates, credit, productivity etc. are among the studied variables; (ii) the resistance to different external and internal shocks (using VAR model) as well as (iii) the mechanisms for balancing and absorption of these shocks. To give a better comparative picture we compose the panel including Hungary and Czech Republic.
|Date of creation:||01 Feb 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 724 E. University Ave, Wyly Hall 1st Flr, Ann Arbor MI 48109|
Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763-5850
Web page: http://www.wdi.umich.edu
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- António Afonso & Christiane Nickel & Philipp C. Rother, 2006.
"Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 402-421, July.
- António Afonso & Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother, 2005. "Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2005/03, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Afonso, António & Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp, 2005. "Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries," Working Paper Series 0473, European Central Bank.
- Daniel Daianu & Laurian Lungu, 2007. "Inflation Targeting, Between Rhetoric and Reality. The Case of Transition Economies," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 39-64, June.
- Daniel Daianu & Laurian Lungu, 2005. "Inflation Targeting, Between Rhetoric and Reality. The Case of Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp743, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
- Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
- Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2006. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Working Papers 0604, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
- Christoph Duenwald & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies; The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 05/128, .
- Urmas Varblane & Priit Vahter, 2005. "An Analysis Of The Economic Convergence Process In The Transition Countries," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 37, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
- Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0404011, EconWPA.
- Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 1182, CESifo Group Munich.
- Paul de Grauwe & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What brings Countries Sharing a Single Currency Closer together?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 29, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 0468, European Central Bank.
- Süppel, Ralph, 2003. "Comparing economic dynamics in the EU and CEE accession countries," Working Paper Series 0267, European Central Bank.
- Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)