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Updating the poverty estimates in Serbia in the absence of micro data : a microsimulation approach

Author

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  • Cojocaru, Alexandru
  • Olivieri, Sergio

Abstract

The continued poverty impact of the financial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond 2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tackles this difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach that accounts for a key pathway of the financial crisis in Serbia, the labor market. The results suggest a further increase in poverty in 2011 on account of a continued deterioration of the labor market indicators and despite a recovering gross domestic product. In order to evaluate the forecast, the model is applied to generate forecasts for previous years (2009 and 2010), which are compared with realized poverty estimates. The micro-simulation model performs well in predicting poverty dynamics during 2009-10 and less so during 2008-09. The accuracy of the predictions improves when the response of the social protection system is accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Cojocaru, Alexandru & Olivieri, Sergio, 2014. "Updating the poverty estimates in Serbia in the absence of micro data : a microsimulation approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6889, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6889
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & Luis Pereira, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754864, HAL.
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    5. Francois Bourguignon & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Nora Lustig, 2005. "The Microeconomics of Income Distribution Dynamics in East Asia and Latin America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14844, April.
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    7. Habib, Bilal & Narayan, Ambar & Olivieri, Sergio & Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina, 2010. "Assessing ex ante the poverty and distributional impact of the global crisis in a developing country : a micro-simulation approach with application to Bangladesh," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5238, The World Bank.
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