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How do ex ante simulations compare with ex post evaluations ? evidence from the impact of conditional cash transfer programs

Author

Listed:
  • Leite, Phillippe
  • Narayan, Ambar
  • Skoufias, Emmanuel

Abstract

This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.

Suggested Citation

  • Leite, Phillippe & Narayan, Ambar & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2011. "How do ex ante simulations compare with ex post evaluations ? evidence from the impact of conditional cash transfer programs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5705, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5705
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. André Decoster & Pieter Vanleenhove, 2012. "In-Work Tax Credits in Belgium :An Analysis of the Jobkorting Using a Discrete Labour Supply Model," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 55(2), pages 121-150.
    2. Jose Cuesta & Jon Jellema & Lucia Ferrone, 0. "Fiscal Policy, Multidimensional Poverty, and Equity in Uganda: A Child-Lens Analysis," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 0, pages 1-32.
    3. Jose Cuesta & Jon Jellema & Lucia Ferrone, 2021. "Fiscal Policy, Multidimensional Poverty, and Equity in Uganda: A Child-Lens Analysis," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(3), pages 427-458, June.
    4. Neil S. Williams, 2023. "Gender and institutions moderate the relationship between conditional cash transfers and political participation," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1343-1359, December.
    5. Pablo Vidueira & José M. Díaz-Puente & María Rivera, 2014. "Socioeconomic Impact Assessment in Ex Ante Evaluations," Evaluation Review, , vol. 38(4), pages 309-335, August.
    6. Jose Cuesta & Michael Danquah, 2022. "Urban cash transfers and poverty in Ghana," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 133-155, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty Monitoring&Analysis; Scientific Research&Science Parks; Science Education; Youth and Governance; Primary Education;
    All these keywords.

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