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Public expenditure and consumption volatility

Author

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  • Herrera, Santiago
  • Vincent, Bruno

Abstract

Recent estimates of the welfare cost of consumption volatility find that it is significant in developing nations, where it may reach an equivalent of reducing consumption by 10 percent per year. Hence, examining the determinants of consumption volatility is of utmost relevance. Based on cross-country data for the period 1960-2005, the paper explains consumption volatility using three sets of variables: one refers to the volatility of income and the persistence of income shocks; the second set of variables refers to policy volatility, considering the volatility of public spending and the size of government; while the third set captures the ability of agents to smooth shocks, and includes the depth of the domestic financial markets as well as the degree of integration to international capital markets. To allow for potential endogenous regressors, in particular the volatility of fiscal policy and the size of government, the system is estimated using the instrumental variables method. The results indicate that, besides income volatility, the variables with the largest and most robust impact on consumption volatility are government size and the volatility of public spending. Results also show that deeper and more stable domestic financial markets reduce the volatility of consumption, and that more integrated financial markets to the international capital markets are associated with lower volatility of consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Herrera, Santiago & Vincent, Bruno, 2008. "Public expenditure and consumption volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4633, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4633
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Mirdala, Rajmund & Svrčeková, Aneta & Semančíková, Jozefína, 2015. "On the Relationship between Financial Integration, Financial Liberalization and Macroeconomic Volatility," MPRA Paper 66143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mirdala, Rajmund & Svrčeková, Aneta, 2014. "Financial Integration, Volatility of Financial Flows and Macroeconomic Volatility," MPRA Paper 61845, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Combes, Jean-Louis & Ebeke, Christian, 2011. "Remittances and Household Consumption Instability in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1076-1089, July.
    6. Combes, Jean-Louis & Ebeke, Christian Hubert & Etoundi, Sabine Mireille Ntsama & Yogo, Thierry Urbain, 2014. "Are Remittances and Foreign Aid a Hedge Against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 81-98.
    7. Stojanovikj, Martin, 2022. "Government size, inflation targeting and business cycle volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-12.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittance Inflows a Hedge Against Food Price Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 2012/067, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Alena Kimakova, 2009. "Government size and openness revisited: the case of financial globalization," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 394-406, August.
    10. Ang, James B., 2011. "Finance and consumption volatility: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 947-964, October.
    11. Ablam Estel Apeti, 2022. "Household welfare in the digital age: Assessing the effect of mobile money on household consumption volatility in developing countries," Post-Print hal-03819779, HAL.
    12. Apeti, Ablam Estel, 2023. "Household welfare in the digital age: Assessing the effect of mobile money on household consumption volatility in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Mondal, Ripon Kumar & Khanam, Rasheda, 2018. "The impacts of international migrants’ remittances on household consumption volatility in developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 171-187.

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