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Cote d'Ivoire : from success to failure a story of growth, specialization, and the terms of trade

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  • Bogetic, Zeljko
  • Noer, John
  • Espina, Carlos

Abstract

Real GDP per capita and capital stock in Cote d'Ivoire grew strongly from 1960 to 1979, but have declined ever since, for twenty-five years. As a result, the country has traveled a full circle from economic success to failure in little more than a generation. What are the long-term factors behind this dismal growth story? Are the Ivorian development problems mostly of recent origin? Or there are more fundamental, economic factors that explain its long term performance? Fourprincipal conclusions are as follows: First, Cote d'Ivoire's long-term growth performance is not fully explained by temporary factors (e.g., CFA overvaluation or recent conflict). Longer term factors such as capital accumulation, productivity, and terms of trade are key to understanding the country's performance as is the policy of specialization in a single commodity--cocoa. Second, the long-term decline in per capita output started well before the currency overvaluation, and at a time of political stability, and is related to a major, secular deterioration in terms of trade that started after 1976. Third, total factor productivity estimates indicate that TFP per capita also grew until it hit a plateau in 1976-78, and then shrank thereafter, despite gains in human capital accumulation. Fourth, Cote d'Ivoire has pursued a policy of specialization in cocoa beans but this bet on a single commodity has ultimately failed. The strategy that brought prosperity during the 1970s resulted in a growth failure when cocoa prices began declining since 1976.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogetic, Zeljko & Noer, John & Espina, Carlos, 2007. "Cote d'Ivoire : from success to failure a story of growth, specialization, and the terms of trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4414, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4414
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007. "Growth and human capital: good data, good results," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-76, March.
    2. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    3. Bogetic, Zeljko & Espina, Carlos & Noer, John, 2007. "Cote d'ivoire volatility, shocks and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4415, The World Bank.
    4. Bogetic, Zeljko & Espina, Carlos & Noer, John, 2007. "Cote d'Ivoire : competitiveness, Cocoa, and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4416, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Souleymane Soumahoro, 2014. "Export Taxes and Consumption: A ‘Natural Experiment’ from Côte d'Ivoire," HiCN Working Papers 182, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Bogetic, Zeljko & Espina, Carlos & Noer, John, 2007. "Cote d'ivoire volatility, shocks and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4415, The World Bank.
    3. Bogetic, Zeljko & Espina, Carlos & Noer, John, 2007. "Cote d'Ivoire : competitiveness, Cocoa, and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4416, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Economic Growth; Emerging Markets; Access to Finance;

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