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Growth trends in the developing world : country forecasts and determinants

Author

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  • Ianchovichina, Elena
  • Kacker, Pooja

Abstract

The authors present real per capita GDP growth forecasts for all developing countries for the period 2005-14. For 55 of these countries, representing major world regions and accounting for close to 80 percent of the developing world's GDP, they forecast the growth effects of the main forces underpinning growth, assuming that these evolve following past trends. The authors find that for the average developing country the largest growth dividend comes from continued improvement in public infrastructure, followed by the growth contributions of rising secondary school enrollment, trade openness, and financial deepening. The joint contribution of these four growth determinants to average, annual per capita GDP growth in the next decade is estimated to be 1 percentage point. Failure to keep improving public infrastructure alone could reduce this growth dividend by 50 percent. The forecasted growth contributions differ by country qualitatively and quantitatively.

Suggested Citation

  • Ianchovichina, Elena & Kacker, Pooja, 2005. "Growth trends in the developing world : country forecasts and determinants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3775, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3775
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2007. "Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery : Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 1. Summary and Recommendations," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7576, The World Bank.
    2. Ianchovichina, Elena & Estache, Antonio & Foucart, Renaud & Garsous, Grégoire & Yepes, Tito, 2013. "Job Creation through Infrastructure Investment in the Middle East and North Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 209-222.
    3. World Bank, 2007. "Uganda - Moving Beyond Recovery, Investment and Behavior Change, For Growth, Volume 2, Overview," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7574, The World Bank.
    4. Betina Dimaranan & Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2009. "How will growth in China and India affect the world economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 551-571, October.
    5. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6632, July.

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    Keywords

    Achieving Shared Growth; Economic Theory&Research; Governance Indicators; Inequality; Economic Growth;

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