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Unemployment - poverty trade-offs

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  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard

Abstract

The author examines the potential trade-offs that may arise between poverty alleviation and unemployment reduction. He discusses various analytical arguments that may provide a rationale for their existence, and uses three alternative methodologies to assess their relevance: a vector autoregression framework (which is applied to Brazil and Chile), cross-country regressions, and simulations with a structural macro model linked to a household survey. Impulse response functions to output and wage shocks indicate no short-run tradeoff. between unemployment and poverty. By contrast, regression results, which control for a variety of determinants of poverty rates across countries, suggest that such a trade-off may indeed exist. Simulations with the structural model show that labor market reforms may induce both short- and long-run trade-offs between the composition of unemployment and the incidence of poverty among household groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 2004. "Unemployment - poverty trade-offs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3297, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & FERNANDES Reynaldo & HADDAD Eduardo & VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE Dominique, "undated". "Analyzing the Impact of Adjustment Policies on the Poor: An IMMPA Framework for Brazil," EcoMod2003 330700002, EcoMod.
    3. Angus Deaton, 2000. "Counting the world's poor: problems and possible solutions," Working Papers 212, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    4. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 1999. "Macroeconomic adjustment with segmented labor markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 277-296.
    5. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1994. "Growth and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 477-494.
    6. Fabio Arico, 2003. "Growth and Unemployment: Towards a Theoretical Integration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 419-455, July.
    7. King, Ian & Welling, Linda, 1995. "Search, unemployment, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 499-507, June.
    8. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2004. "Does globalization hurt the poor?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 21-51, March.
    9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    10. Bean, Charles & Pissarides, Christopher, 1993. "Unemployment, consumption and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 837-854, May.
    11. Anton B. T. M. Van Schaik & Henri L. F. De Groot, 1998. "Unemployment and Endogenous Growth," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 189-219, July.
    12. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aynaoui, Karim El, 2003. "Labor market policies and unemployment in Morocco : a quantitative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3091, The World Bank.
    13. World Bank, 2004. "Unlocking the Employment Potential in the Middle East and North Africa : Toward a New Social Contract," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15011.
    14. Pierre-Richard AGÉNOR & Derek H. C. CHEN & Michael GRIMM, "undated". "Linking Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis: A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies," EcoMod2004 330600002, EcoMod.
    15. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & IZQUIERDO Alejandro & FOFACK Hippolyte, "undated". "IMMPA: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Framework for the Analysis of Poverty Reduction Strategies," EcoMod2003 330700003, EcoMod.
    16. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    17. Cahuc, Pierre & Michel, Philippe, 1996. "Minimum wage unemployment and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1463-1482, August.
    18. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2004. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Issues and Cross-Country Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18, pages 351-408, July.
    19. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Verghis, Mathew & Yeldan, Erinc, 2006. "Disinflation, fiscal sustainability, and labor market adjustment in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3804, The World Bank.
    20. Martin Ravallion, 2004. "The Debate on Globalization, Poverty and Inequality: why Measurement Matters," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit & Banerjee, Dibyendu, 2010. "FDI in agricultural land, welfare and unemployment in a developing economy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 229-239, December.

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