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Unemployment - poverty trade-offs

  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard

The author examines the potential trade-offs that may arise between poverty alleviation and unemployment reduction. He discusses various analytical arguments that may provide a rationale for their existence, and uses three alternative methodologies to assess their relevance: a vector autoregression framework (which is applied to Brazil and Chile), cross-country regressions, and simulations with a structural macro model linked to a household survey. Impulse response functions to output and wage shocks indicate no short-run tradeoff. between unemployment and poverty. By contrast, regression results, which control for a variety of determinants of poverty rates across countries, suggest that such a trade-off may indeed exist. Simulations with the structural model show that labor market reforms may induce both short- and long-run trade-offs between the composition of unemployment and the incidence of poverty among household groups.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3297.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3297
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  1. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Chen, Derek H.C. & Grimm, Michael, 2004. "Linking representative household models with household surveys for poverty analysis : a comparison of alternative methodologies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3343, The World Bank.
  2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 2002. "Macroeconomic adjustment and the poor : analytical issues and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2788, The World Bank.
  4. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1994. "Macroeconomic Adjustment with Segmented Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 4769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  6. Angus Deaton, 2000. "Counting the world's poor: problems and possible solutions," Working Papers 212, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
  7. Ravallion, Martin, 2003. "The debate on globalization, poverty, and inequality : why measurement matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3038, The World Bank.
  8. Cahuc, P. & Michel, P., 1992. "Minimum Wage, Unemployment and Growth," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92.35, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  9. Bean, Charles & Pissarides, Christopher, 1993. "Unemployment, consumption and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 837-854, May.
  10. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & IZQUIERDO Alejandro & FOFACK Hippolyte, . "IMMPA: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Framework for the Analysis of Poverty Reduction Strategies," EcoMod2003 330700003, EcoMod.
  11. Anton B. T. M. Van Schaik & Henri L. F. De Groot, 1998. "Unemployment and Endogenous Growth," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 189-219, 07.
  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  13. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Verghis, Mathew & Yeldan, Erinc, 2006. "Disinflation, fiscal sustainability, and labor market adjustment in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3804, The World Bank.
  14. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2004. "Does globalization hurt the poor?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 21-51, 03.
  15. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aynaoui, Karim El, 2003. "Labor market policies and unemployment in Morocco : a quantitative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3091, The World Bank.
  16. Fabio Arico, 2003. "Growth and Unemployment: Towards a Theoretical Integration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 419-455, 07.
  17. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1994. "Growth and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 477-494.
  18. King, Ian & Welling, Linda, 1995. "Search, unemployment, and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 499-507, June.
  19. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & FERNANDES Reynaldo & HADDAD Eduardo & VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE Dominique, . "Analyzing the Impact of Adjustment Policies on the Poor: An IMMPA Framework for Brazil," EcoMod2003 330700002, EcoMod.
  20. World Bank, 2004. "Unlocking the Employment Potential in the Middle East and North Africa : Toward a New Social Contract," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15011, November.
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